Assignment One Suggested Due Date: July 17th In this assignment you will read three articles You will answer questions about Hayek, Lucas, and Mankiw et. al. which consider just those particular articles. Then at the end of the assignment there is a cluster of questions that deal with both Lucas and Mankiw et al where you will have an opportunity to compare and contrast those two articles. When you have completed the assignment, place it in the appropriate drop box in WTClass. Hayek: The Use of Knowledge in Society http://www.econlib.org/library/Essays/hykKnw1.html Adapted from Michael K. Salemi “The Use of Knowledge in Society” F. A. Hayek Discussion Questions 1.1. “The peculiar character of the problem of a rational economic order is determined precisely by the fact that the knowledge of the circumstances of which we must make use never exists in concentrated or integrated form, but solely as the dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge which all the separate individuals possess (H.3)” a. What does Hayek mean by a “rational economic order”? b. What does Hayek mean by “dispersed bits of incomplete and frequently contradictory knowledge”? c. Why is Hayek critical of the common assumptions in economic analysis that buyers, sellers, producers and the economist all know every relevant thing about the economy? d. What, in summary, does Hayek mean by the quoted statement? 1.2. What, according to Hayek, is the information needed to operate effectively in a complex market economy? a. What does Hayek mean by “planning”? b. What is the minimum information needed by economic planners and individuals? c. Does the minimum differ for planners and for individuals? How? Why? d. What happens when some individuals possess more information than other individuals? e. What does Hayek mean when he says (H.16) “…the sort of knowledge with which I have been concerned is knowledge of the kind which by its nature cannot enter into statistics and therefore cannot be conveyed to any central authority in statistical form”? f. Why, according to Hayek, can the “information problem” be solved by “the price system”? 1.3. Why, according to Hayek, is the true function of the price system the communication of information? a. Why does Hayek use the term ‘marvel’ in his discussion of the economy of knowledge? b. What does Hayek mean when he says (H.26) “…man has been able to develop that division of labor on which our civilization is based because he happened to stumble upon a method which made it possible”? Read Robert Lucas’ “Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century” in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. (Skip the appendix.) All four of these links go to the same article. Some of the links might not be accessible to you, but I think that at least one of them should work for all of you. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.14.1.159 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2647059 http://www.econ.psu.edu/~aur10/Econ%20570%20Fall%202009/Lucas%20JEP%202000.pdf http://faculty.georgetown.edu/mh5/class/econ102/readings/Macro_21st_Century.pdf 1. According to Lucas, why has the world’s economy grown so much since 1960? 2. According to Lucas, why do some nations grow faster than others? 3. According to Lucas, why will growth and inequality decrease in the next 100 years? 4. Is Lucas’ model in this paper “economics?” Read Greg Mankiw, Romer and Wiel’s article in The Quarterly Journal of Economics. http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Courses/Readings/MankiwRomerWeil.pdf 1. Many economists think the Solow Growth Model is of limited use. (One of my professors at OU stated that it took economists 50 years to figure out that their growth model has nothing to do with growth.) But does the Solow model give “…the right answer to the questions it is designed to address?” 2. Why is human capital important when testing the Solow model against the data? 3. Explain how the authors conclude that the incomes of the world’s nations are converging? Now that you’ve answered questions about Lucas and Mankiw et al separately, consider this question: Both of these papers develop the notion that the economies of the world’s nations will tend to “converge” over time. Compare and contrast the way(s) in which the papers advance the idea of convergence. Assignment Two Due Date July 24th This assignment is very straight forward. You’ll read two papers and answer questions about each of them. Read Krugman’s paper on unemployment http://www.kc.frb.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/EconRevArchive/1994/4Q94KRUG.pdf 1. What is the difference between structural and cyclical unemployment? In this context, what is the difference between Europe and the US? What is the evidence that Krugman uses to back his opinion? 2. What is the natural rate of unemployment? Why is it higher/rising in Europe? Again, what is the evidence? 3. What is the relationship between the rising unemployment in Europe and the rise in inequality in the US. (What does Krugman mean by inequality?) 4. What is NOT to blame for either the rise in unemployment or inequality? 5. What policies, if any, can be put into place to combat rising inequality/unemployment? 6. Are you convinced by Krugman’s argument which rules out globalization as the likely cause for high European unemployment and high US wage inequality? 7. Consider Table 2 in Krugman. Why does Krugman include Table 2 in his paper? In other words, what point is strengthened by the data in Table 2 and why is it crucial to Krugman’s larger thesis? NOW, recreate the data for Table 2 for either the UK or US for the latest year possible. Has anything changed as a result of the Great Recession? Read Thomas Sargent’s paper about the credibility of “Reaganonomics.” http://minneapolisfed.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15334coll1/id/366 http://minneapolisfed.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/singleitem/collection/p15334coll1/id/366/rec/1 You might like this: http://www.ispot.tv/ad/7Lj9/ally-bank-predictions-featuring-thomas-sargent 1. What is a dynamic game? 2. Why should we think of monetary and fiscal policy as dynamic game? Who are the players and what are the strategies? 3. When are government budgets inflationary? (Again, think in terms of a game.) 4. What are the consequences if the monetary authority does not coordinate with fiscal policy agents? 5. Has Sargent done of good job characterizing the interplay between policymakers in the government, the central bank, and the public? 6. What is the connection between policy coordination and credibility? 7. Why, according to Sargent, were Reagan’s fiscal and monetary policy regimes “incredible?” Explain carefully. Assignment Three Due Date July 31 Read Taylor, Miskin, Obstfeld and Rogoff. Answer the questions for each article, then answer the final cluster that requires you to consider Miskin, Obstfeld and Rogoff. Suggested due date: January 2nd. Read John Taylor’s article about monetary transmission mechanisms. http://web.econ.unito.it/bagliano/ecmon_readings/taylor_jep95.pdf Also, to understand traditional monetary policy, listen to this: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/08/john_taylor_on.html These questions refer to the article, not the podcast. 1. How does monetary policy (or changes in monetary policy) affect output and inflation? In other words, what is the monetary policy transmission mechanism? 2. What is the importance of financial market prices in Taylor’s view? 3. What is the importance of rational expectations and rigidities in the prices of labor and goods? 4. What is a reaction function? Why is a reaction function important? 5. What is an “optimal monetary policy rule?” 6. Has the monetary transmission mechanism changed? How? 7. What are the criticisms of Taylor’s views? How does he respond? What do you think? Read Mishkin’s article about global financial instability. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.4.3 1. What is a financial crisis? 2. How did adverse selection and moral hazard contribute to the financial crisis in Mexico and East Asia in the 1990s? What are adverse selection and moral hazard? 3. Did irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy contribute to the crisis in the 90s? Why or why not? 4. How is it possible for the IMF to help in a crisis when a domestic central bank might not be able to help. 5. What should the US learn (or have learned??) from the crisis in the 90s? Read Rogoff’s article about global financial instability. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.4.21 http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.4.21 Answer the questions and place the answers in the appropriate drop box in WTClass. 1. According to Rogoff, is the status quo in international lending viable or not? Explain. 2. Can the IMF handle international financial crises? Why or why not? 3. Rogoff gives six solutions to save the global financial system (deep pockets lender of last resort, an international financial crisis manager, an international bankruptcy court, an international regulator, international deposit insurance corporation, and a world monetary authority.) What is wrong with all of these? 4. Can developing economies cope with speculative capital flows without help? Explain. 5. What will be (should be) the role that equity financing play in developing country projects? Read Obstfeld on Global Capital Markets: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6559.pdf 1. Look at table 1 and figure 1. How does Obstfeld use the data in that table to suggest that 1) markets became less open then more open in the 20th century. 2. What is the “openness trilemma?” What are the economic and/or policy trade-offs with having a global, open and integrated financial system? 3. How does economic integration impact a nation’s ability to tax capital? Can you think of some high profile cases in the news lately that illustrate this fact? (Hint: you should be able to.) 4. What is the international diversification puzzle? What market failures have arisen (if any) have arisen due to more integration and openness? Comparing Obstfeld, Miskin, and Rogoff 1. Would the authors’ advice about policies to reduce the costs of financial integration be the same? Why or why not? 2. Would the authors’ agree that we need an international regulatory body to stave off international financial crises? Why or why not? 3. What is your opinion? Is it good to have a global financial market? Why or why not? Assignment Four Due Date August 7 Straight forward assignment: Read and answer the questions. Read Arnold Kling’s history of the policies that created the great recession http://mercatus.org/publication/not-what-they-had-mind-history-policies-produced-financial-crisis-2008 1. Using only the executive summary, what does Kling think caused the Financial Crisis of 2008? (Use only one sentence.) 2. One page 5, what is “the fact?” and what does this “fact” mean to you? 3. Briefly summarize the four components of the Financial Crisis? 4. On page 10, Kling states, “These property bubbles (in the U.K. and Spain) cannot be blamed on U.S. policy.” How confident are you on that point? Is Kling wrong? 5. Kling’s matrix of causes, gives almost all weight to what two factors? What three factors are almost completely not responsible? 6. Many have blamed designer financial (my term) like CDS and CDO and the shadow banking system for the collapse. How do these fit into Kling’s narrative? 7. Outline the progression of policy that caused/responded to economic conditions in the 30s, 70s and 80s and 00s. 8. What role did the mortgage interest deduction have on housing market? 9. What institution invented and allowed the expansion of mortgage-backed securities? 10. What is regulatory arbitrage? 11. Why did the Basel agreement create an advantage for mortgage securitization? 12. Did the Federal Reserve (and presumably other regulatory agencies know and even encourage regulatory capital arbitrage? What author does Kling cite to establish this? 13. What did the 2002 modification of the Basel Rules do to capital requirements? (See figure 4) 14. Summarize the Shadow Regulatory Committee’s statement 160. 15. Did non market institutions, such as the IMF and Bernanke, think, in 2006, that financial innovation had make the banking sector more or less fragile? 16. What is time inconsistency? (You can look this up elsewhere.) 17. How might “barriers to entry” by related to “safety and soundness?” 18. A Curmudgeon is an old man who is easily annoyed and angered. He also complains a lot. (I had to look it up.) I think I’ll change my xbox gamertag to this word, but I’ll bet it is taken. 19. How did credit scoring and credit default swaps enlarge the mortgage securities market? 20. Why, up until 2007, did we think that monetary expansion was all that was needed to mitigate the impact of financial crises? 21. Suppose that financial markets are inherently unstable. What does this mean are two goals of regulation and regulators? 22. Why are type two errors so problematic? (Two reasons.) 23. How could we make the banking sector easy to fix? Assignment Five Due August 13 Read the linked lectures and answer the questions. Lecture 1 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_in_mac.html 1.1 Why do you think macroeconomic realities must be reconciled with microeconomic analysis? (This is not a rhetorical question, but it will be hard for you to answer. There is no “wrong” answer you could give. Just think about it for a few minutes.) Lecture 2 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_in_mac_1.html 2.1 Consider this article after you have read Hayek. How do prices and wages perform the function of “central planning?” 2.2 Kling makes that claim that, because most workers do not do manual labor anymore, the economy is different that it was in 1930. Assuming he is correct, do you think central planning would be harder today or easier? Why? Lecture 3 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac.html 3.1 Give a one sentence definition of structural unemployment, of frictional unemployment and of cyclical unemployment. Lecture 4 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac_1.html 4.1 So, why does the economy adjust employment rather than wages? Lecture 5 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac_2.html 5.1 Kling gives 5 reasons the DotCom recession was worse than the previous two recessions (at least in duration). Which reason do you think is the most compelling? Lecture 6 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac_3.html 6.1 Why are Keynesian remedies (blunt fiscal and monetary policy measures) less appropriate in a post industrial economy, according to Kling? Lecture 7 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac_4.html 7.1 Why is it so hard to separate finance and government, according to Kling? Lecture 8 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/11/lectures_on_mac_5.html 8.1 Why is American Express Travelers Checks so interesting? Do credit cards work in a similar way? (I really don’t know the answer to this one. I just know that credit cards have made travelers checks obsolete.) Lecture 9. http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/12/lectures_on_mac_6.html 9.1 According to this article, why do we have banks (financial sector or financial intermediation?) Lecture 10 http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/12/lectures_on_mac_7.html 10.1 Why are banks better than barter, according to this leture? 10.2 Politics tends to favor bailouts of failed firms. Why is this exactly wrong?
Question 1 When using NTFS as a file system, what can be used to control the amount of hard disk space each user on the machine can have as a maximum? Answer Logical drives Extended partitions Disk quotas Security Center Question 2 Pin 1 of the floppy cable connects to pin 34 of the controller. Answer True False Question 3 What is the primary cause of hard drive failures? Answer Heat Dust Dirty laser lens Moving parts Question 4 The DBR contains the system files. Answer True False Question 5 A spanned volume requires a minimum of three hard drives. Answer True False Question 6 Which situation would not be appropriate for the use of SSDs? Answer A military operation where fast access to data is critical A medical imaging office that needs high-capacity storage A manufacturing plant with heat-sensitive equipment A research facility where noise must be kept to a minimum Question 7 Why are SSDs more susceptible than mechanical hard drives to electrostatic discharge? Answer The internal battery of the SSD provides additional current. SSDs are memory. The voltage level of the SSD is lower than a mechanical hard drive. The SSD is a more fragile component. Question 8 A motherboard has two PATA IDE connectors, A and B. A is nearer the edge than B. The IDE cable from A connects to a 500GB hard drive and then to a 200GB hard drive. The IDE cable from B connects to an R/W optical drive and then to a Blu-ray optical drive. Assuming the setup is optimal, which of the following describes the 500GB hard drive? Answer Primary slave Secondary slave Primary master Secondary master Question 9 The primary IDE motherboard connection normally uses I/O address 1F0 -1F7h and IRQ 15. Answer True False Question 10 A cable with a twist is used when installing two floppy drives. Answer True False Question 11 What does partitioning the hard drive mean? Answer Dividing the hard drive up into three different sections: one for each type of file system Preparing the drive to be mounted Giving the hard drive a drive letter and/or allowing the hard drive to be seen as more than one drive Preparing the drive for an operating system Question 12 The Network Engineering Technology departmental secretary is getting a new computer funded by a grant. The old computer is being moved by the PC technicians to give to the new program facilitator in another department. Which one of the following is most likely to be used before the program facilitator uses the computer? Answer Check Now Tool Backup Tool Disk Management Tool BitLocker Question 13 What is CHKDSK? Answer A command used to scan the disk for viruses during off hours A program used to defragment the hard drive A program used to locate and identify lost clusters A command used to verify the validity of the drive surface before installing a file system or an operating system Question 14 When a disk has been prepared to store data, it has been Answer Cleaned Tracked Enabled Formatted Question 15 Where would you go to enable a SATA port? Answer CMOS BIOS Disk Management Tool Task Manager Question 16 The Windows boot partition is the partition that must contain the majority of the operating system. Answer True False Question 17 Two considerations when adding or installing a floppy drive are an available drive bay and an available power connector. Answer True False Question 18 What is the difference between a SATA 2 and a SATA 3 hard drive? Answer The SATA 3 has a different power connector. The SATA 3 device transmits more simultaneous bits than SATA 2. The SATA 3 device transmits data faster. SATA 3 will always be a larger capacity drive. The SATA 3 device will be physically smaller. Question 19 What command would be used in Windows 7 to repair a partition table? Answer FDISK FORMAT FIXBOOT bootrec /FixMbr FIXMBR Question 20 What file system is optimized for optical media? Answer exFAT FAT32 CDFS NTFS Question 21 One of the most effective ways of increasing computer performance is to increase the size of virtual memory. Answer True False Question 22 Older PATA IDE cables and the Ultra ATA/66 cable differ by Answer Where the twist occurs The number of conductors The number of pins The number of devices they can connect to Question 23 Which of the following is NOT important in assigning SCSI IDs? Answer The hard drive that the system boots to may have a preset ID. ID priority must match the order of appearance on the SCSI chain. All devices must have unique IDs. Slower devices should have higher priority IDs. Question 24 The ATA standard is associated with the SCSI interface. Answer True False Question 25 A striped volume requires a minimum of two hard drives. Answer True False
After reading the supplement article on Business Analytics linked to the week 1 schedule, write an essay on how business analytics impacts you today, or its potential role in your chosen career path. Do research for your paper, or interview someone who works in your area. The goals of this paper are two-fold: (1) focus on high quality writing, using the COBE Writing Styles Guide for writing help and citations. (2) consider the importance of BI from a personal/work/career perspective.
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3. The probability density function for mechanical component is given by: fT(t) = 1/(b-a) when t <=a<=b = 0; elsewhere Determine: • Cumulative distribution of the failures (5 points) • Reliability of the components (5 points) • Hazard rate for the components (5 points) • Mean, standard deviation of the failure distribution and reliability of components at the end of 2 years, when c=0.0025 (5 points) • Plot the probability density function, probability time distribution function, Reliability function and Hard Rate function for the given distribution when a=6000 and b=12000 (5 points)
ENGG4020/7020 Systems Safety Engineering Group Assignment 2: System Hazard Analysis Semester 2, 2015 School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering The University of Queensland Goals: To develop skills in System Hazard Analysis (SHA) and gain experience in use of hazard analysis techniques by application to a realistic case study. To develop skills in written communication, in particular the skills associated with preparing written reports. Deadline: Friday 25 September 2015 at 5pm. Late assignments will attract a penalty of 20% per day. What you have to do (group assignment): Prepare a partial SHA for the AETU system (including operator) based on the given Operational Concept Document and AETU Functional Architecture. Your report should cover the following items: Q1. Partial FMEA: (a) Give a failure mode for each of the 10 components described in the AETU Functional Architecture, including the 3 sub-components of the User Interface. That is, describe one particular way in which the component might fail. Try to select examples that are plausible and could contribute to accidents, either directly or indirectly. Include possible causes in each case, to help illustrate the failure mode. (b) For each of the failure modes from (a), describe a possible system hazard that may arise, and why. Display the results in an FMEA table such as Fig.1 below. Component Example failure mode Possible cause Possible hazard How the failure could lead to the hazard … … … … … Figure 1: Format for FMEA table (Q1) Q2. Partial CHAZOP: For this question you will develop a partial CHAZOP for the “initiate/shutdown signal” data flow from the Timer component to the Power component in the AETU Functional Architecture. For the purposes of this exercise you can assume simple initiate and shutdown signals are sent. [Hint: The data flow attributes are very simple in this case, so not all of the CHAZOP guidewords will need an interpretation.] (a) Give interpretations of each of the following guidewords for the two attributes of the above flow: None, Other Than, Early, Late. Note that individual guidewords may have more than one relevant interpretation. (b) Give a partial CHAZOP table for the above flow, using the format given in Fig.2 below. For each deviation, give examples of what could cause the deviation, and what effect it could have. Under “associated safety requirements” describe requirements that could be imposed on the system to prevent the deviation, detect its occurrence and/or mitigate its consequences. Figure 2: Format for CHAZOP table (Q2) Q3. FTA: Develop a Fault Tree for the top event “engine overstressed”, down to the level of the components in the AETU Functional Architecture. Your Fault Tree should focus on secondary failures of the engine due to use or misuse of the AETU. You can assume that the main ways that the AETU might cause the engine to overstress are because of: unsafe inputs being sent to the FADEC; new inputs being sent too soon after other inputs, causing sudden changes to the engine’s state; or insufficient time being left between shutting down the engine and initiating it again. For example, the tree might have “AETU sends unsafe FADEC inputs” as an intermediate node, but then break this down into possible faults associated with the Communications unit, the Command Interpreter, the Input Panel and/or the Operator. Your fault tree should use short meaningful labels for the Fault Tree nodes, and then give a more detailed explanation in the documentation where necessary. Submission: You must carry out this assignment in your assigned group. Group members are expected to participate equally in the assignment. To ensure marks are allocated fairly according to contribution, each group member will be required to submit an individual peer assessment form, which will be made available on the course Blackboard site immediately after the assignment deadline. This form must be completed in the week after the assignment deadline. The SHA report must be submitted via Blackboard. Submit one copy per group to both “Assignment 2” and “Assignment 2 via TurnItIn” with your group ID in the submission name. You can submit via the “Group Assignment 2” link as many times as you like: the last submission is the one that will be marked. The TurnItIn submission mechanism should only be used for the final assignment, even if it’s slightly after the deadline. The submission is to be a single file containing a composite document incorporating all parts of the SHA. The format of the document should be PDF and should use standard 11 point fonts with at least 2 cm margins on all sides. If the group’s performance has been adversely affected by exceptional circumstances, the group may apply to the Course Coordinator for special consideration. Suitable documentary evidence (such as a doctor’s certificate) should be supplied where appropriate. School Policy on Student Misconduct: You are required to read and understand the School Statement on Misconduct, available on the School’s website at: http://www.itee.uq.edu.au/itee-student-misconduct-including-plagiarism Flow Attribute Guide word Interpretation Possible causes Possible consequences Associated safety requirements … … … … … … … Evaluation and Assessment Criteria: This assignment is worth 25 marks – the breakdown is indicated on the coversheet. The mark counts for 20% of the final mark (out of 100). Individual marks will be adjusted from the group mark using a Peer Assessment Factor calculated from group submissions. Criterion Mark Standard Presentation (4 marks): Readability, layout, structure, spelling, grammar. 4 Highly professional report 3 Consistently high standard of presentation 1-2 Good presentation with some presentation faults 0 Poorly prepared work with major presentation faults Failure mode identification (4 marks): Plausible failure mode identified for each AETU component 3-4 Highly plausible failure modes chosen for each of the components, with clear explanation of how they could arise 1-2 Generally good coverage of failure modes for components, with some omissions and/or lack of clarity 0 Major omissions FMEA (3 marks): Plausible effect noted for each failure mode 3 Good examples of associated hazards for each of the 10 cases 1-2 Good examples for some cases but not for others 0-1 Major deficiencies CHAZOP guideword interpretation (3 marks): Appropriate CHAZOP guidewords chosen, with plausible interpretations 3 Appropriate choice of guidewords & interpretations, giving good coverage of possible deviations for this flow 1-2 Gaps in coverage 0 Major deficiencies CHAZOP (5 marks): Plausible causes & effects are noted for each deviation, and resulting safety requirements are identified 4-5 Good examples of possible causes & effects of deviations, with appropriate system safety requirements clearly identified 2-3 Generally good coverage with some omissions and/or lack of clarity 0-1 Major omissions Fault Tree Analysis (6 marks): Fault tree developed for the given event 6 The fault tree shows good understanding of FTA 4-5 Generally good coverage, with some omissions and/or lack of clarity or generality, or issues with structure 2-3 Big gaps in coverage, or poor structure or documentation 0-1 Major deficiencies