Watch the video, and then answer the questions below. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUF-T5JubDg#t=49 According to the video, which of the three scholars accepted the invasion of Iraq? A. Realists and liberals tended to reject it, but the constructivists thought it was a good idea. B. Realists tended to reject it, but the constructivists and liberals thought it was a good idea. C. Liberals tended to reject it, but the realists and constructivists thought it was a good idea. D. All of the scholars rejected it. E. None of the scholars rejected it. Which of the following was NOT given as a reason to be concerned about the war in Iraq? A. First and foremost, peace needed to prevail. B. The invasion was form of moralizing or crusading. C. The invasion undermined respect for International law. D. The invasion didn’t serve clear U.S. interests. E. The situation had the potential to become a quagmire. In the video, one of the topics under discussion concerns democratic governance. How much do their views conflict? A. Caleb Gallemore and J.D. Bowen disagree, because democracy is a social construct. B. Randall Schweller and J.D. Bowen disagree, because one side believes that democracy is impossible to spread while the other thinks it may be possible. C. Randall Schweller and Caleb Gallemore disagree with J.D. Bowen, because the first two view the attempt to spread democracy as a moralizing crusade. D. J.D. Bowen and Randall Schweller disagree with Caleb Gallemore, who doesn’t think that democracy can be spread successfully. E. All of the authors agree on the possibility of establishing democracy in Iraq. What sorts of things were on the minds of constructivists considering the war in Iraq? A. the history of colonialism, tensions between Islam and the West, and the United States’ perceived role as a world leader B. whether the war served U.S. interests C. whether the Coalition of the Willing would have forces sufficient to topple Saddam Hussein D. the likelihood that the war would result in a quagmire E. the importance of promoting human rights Professor Bowen says that liberals disagreed about invading Iraq but agreed on the form of government to be established there. What was that form of government? A. a loose confederacy of tribes B. a constitutional monarchy with negotiated rights for minorities C. a communist dictatorship with religious tolerance D. a democracy with respect for human rights E. a long-term military installation with UN forces overseeing government functions

Watch the video, and then answer the questions below. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUF-T5JubDg#t=49 According to the video, which of the three scholars accepted the invasion of Iraq? A. Realists and liberals tended to reject it, but the constructivists thought it was a good idea. B. Realists tended to reject it, but the constructivists and liberals thought it was a good idea. C. Liberals tended to reject it, but the realists and constructivists thought it was a good idea. D. All of the scholars rejected it. E. None of the scholars rejected it. Which of the following was NOT given as a reason to be concerned about the war in Iraq? A. First and foremost, peace needed to prevail. B. The invasion was form of moralizing or crusading. C. The invasion undermined respect for International law. D. The invasion didn’t serve clear U.S. interests. E. The situation had the potential to become a quagmire. In the video, one of the topics under discussion concerns democratic governance. How much do their views conflict? A. Caleb Gallemore and J.D. Bowen disagree, because democracy is a social construct. B. Randall Schweller and J.D. Bowen disagree, because one side believes that democracy is impossible to spread while the other thinks it may be possible. C. Randall Schweller and Caleb Gallemore disagree with J.D. Bowen, because the first two view the attempt to spread democracy as a moralizing crusade. D. J.D. Bowen and Randall Schweller disagree with Caleb Gallemore, who doesn’t think that democracy can be spread successfully. E. All of the authors agree on the possibility of establishing democracy in Iraq. What sorts of things were on the minds of constructivists considering the war in Iraq? A. the history of colonialism, tensions between Islam and the West, and the United States’ perceived role as a world leader B. whether the war served U.S. interests C. whether the Coalition of the Willing would have forces sufficient to topple Saddam Hussein D. the likelihood that the war would result in a quagmire E. the importance of promoting human rights Professor Bowen says that liberals disagreed about invading Iraq but agreed on the form of government to be established there. What was that form of government? A. a loose confederacy of tribes B. a constitutional monarchy with negotiated rights for minorities C. a communist dictatorship with religious tolerance D. a democracy with respect for human rights E. a long-term military installation with UN forces overseeing government functions

Watch the video, and then answer the questions below. According … Read More...
Chapter 06 Reading Questions Due: 11:59pm on Friday, May 23, 2014 You will receive no credit for items you complete after the assignment is due. Grading Policy Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 17 Part A Which of the following represents an example of intraspecific exploitation competition? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 3 Part A A species’s realized niche _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 2 Part A Two species of ant compete for limited resources in a front yard, until only one species is able to remain. This is an example of _____. ANSWER: Hungry and fighting for a meal, a jackal quickly consumes the carcass of a young antelope while fighting off the feeding efforts of a vulture. Two species of worker ants converge on pieces of a donut left behind from the people in the park. The leaves of the huge hickory tree overshadow the young hickory tree saplings struggling for light just below. Spotting a fresh source of grasses, the large male bison moves over to graze, pushing the smaller bison out of the way. is smaller than the fundamental niche because of the constraints of competition is broader than a species’s fundamental niche does not overlap with similar species includes environmental conditions that are not included in the fundamental niche Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 1 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 20 Part A In which of the following situations would we expect a parasite to spread the fastest? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 6 Part A Many plants have evolved adaptations to discourage herbivore feeding. Which one of the following is an example of such coevolution between bison and prairie plants? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 5 Part A When predators selectively prey on the old and sick members of a prey population, they _____. ANSWER: mutualism intraspecific competition the competitive exclusion principle niche differentiation concentrated hosts with slowly moving vectors widely dispersed hosts with rapidly moving vectors concentrated hosts with rapidly moving vectors widely dispersed hosts with slow-moving vectors the ability to regrow after a wildfire thorns the production of nutritious fruits longer and thicker roots Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 2 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 21 Part A Cattle egrets are large white birds that follow grazing cattle. The cattle disturb the grass and stir up insects upon which the egrets feed. The cattle do not seem to mind the birds and gain nothing from this relationship. This relationship between cattle and cattle egrets is a type of _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 8 Part A Which of the following is a mutualistic relationship that has a significant effect on an entire ecological community? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 7 Part A Which one of the following relationships would be considered a win/win? ANSWER: cause the overall health of the prey population to increase illustrate the process of prey switching increase the likelihood of parasitic infections of the prey cause the overall health of the prey population to decrease parasitism commensalism mimicry mutualism Polar bears are the top predator influencing the abundance of seals and sea lions in a region. Hermit crabs inhabit the abandoned shells of marine snails that died long ago. Fungus-plant root associations benefit most of the plants living in a prairie. Mosquitoes function as a vector in the widespread transmission of malaria to people living in Ecuador. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 3 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 23 Part A In examining a terrestrial food web, we expect that the _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 22 Part A Energy is lost as it moves from one trophic level to the next because _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 11 Part A The research on the reintroduction of wolves into Yellowstone National Park reveals that in this ecosystem, wolves represent _____. ANSWER: mutualism predation parasitism commensalism biomass of primary consumers exceeds the biomass of producers number of secondary consumers exceeds the number of producers biomass of primary consumers exceeds the biomass of secondary consumers number of tertiary consumers exceeds the number of secondary consumers one trophic level does not consume the entire trophic level below it some of the calories consumed drive cellular activities and do not add mass some ingested materials are undigested and eliminated All of the listed responses are correct. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 4 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 10 Part A Overhunting of deer followed by a very difficult winter caused the deer population on an island to drop by 80%. In the next two years, visitors to the island were surprised to see many young trees sprouting up at the edges of the forest. This change in the number of saplings as a result of the decline of the deer population represents _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 24 Part A The May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount Saint Helens blasted away soil and produced massive mudflows that scoured the adjacent region down to bare rock. Pumice rock that covered the area is eroding down to smaller gravel. This situation represents _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 15 Part A In some ecosystems, succession increases the chance of disturbance. In these ecosystems, _____. a keystone producer a keystone herbivore a vital primary consumer a keystone predator a trophic cascade a decline in trophic level efficiency the emergence of a new ecological community a loss of a trophic level from a food web primary succession with the removal of all ecological legacies secondary succession with the removal of all ecological legacies secondary succession with several ecological legacies primary succession with several ecological legacies Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 5 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 12 Part A A forest is logged, leaving behind the seeds and saplings of many shrubs and trees. These seeds and saplings represent _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 13 Part A During primary succession, populations of different species replace one another over time because of _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 14 Part A Which one of the following represents a climax community in southern Alaska? ANSWER: ecosystems begin again with primary succession climax communities are expected climax communities may not occur disturbances usually result in virtually no ecological legacy ecological legacies a climax community primary succession pioneer species migration facilitation competition All of the listed responses are correct. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 6 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 9 Part A In general, _____. ANSWER: Score Summary: Your score on this assignment is 0.0%. You received 0 out of a possible total of 19 points. the group of species associated with a white spruce forest lichens and mosses that colonize exposed rock birch and alder trees herbs and a few low shrubs that replace lichens and mosses food webs usually have 8-10 trophic levels food webs are interconnected food chains food chains consist of many interrelated food webs food webs consist of either consumers or producers Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 7 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM

Chapter 06 Reading Questions Due: 11:59pm on Friday, May 23, 2014 You will receive no credit for items you complete after the assignment is due. Grading Policy Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 17 Part A Which of the following represents an example of intraspecific exploitation competition? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 3 Part A A species’s realized niche _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 2 Part A Two species of ant compete for limited resources in a front yard, until only one species is able to remain. This is an example of _____. ANSWER: Hungry and fighting for a meal, a jackal quickly consumes the carcass of a young antelope while fighting off the feeding efforts of a vulture. Two species of worker ants converge on pieces of a donut left behind from the people in the park. The leaves of the huge hickory tree overshadow the young hickory tree saplings struggling for light just below. Spotting a fresh source of grasses, the large male bison moves over to graze, pushing the smaller bison out of the way. is smaller than the fundamental niche because of the constraints of competition is broader than a species’s fundamental niche does not overlap with similar species includes environmental conditions that are not included in the fundamental niche Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 1 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 20 Part A In which of the following situations would we expect a parasite to spread the fastest? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 6 Part A Many plants have evolved adaptations to discourage herbivore feeding. Which one of the following is an example of such coevolution between bison and prairie plants? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 5 Part A When predators selectively prey on the old and sick members of a prey population, they _____. ANSWER: mutualism intraspecific competition the competitive exclusion principle niche differentiation concentrated hosts with slowly moving vectors widely dispersed hosts with rapidly moving vectors concentrated hosts with rapidly moving vectors widely dispersed hosts with slow-moving vectors the ability to regrow after a wildfire thorns the production of nutritious fruits longer and thicker roots Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 2 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 21 Part A Cattle egrets are large white birds that follow grazing cattle. The cattle disturb the grass and stir up insects upon which the egrets feed. The cattle do not seem to mind the birds and gain nothing from this relationship. This relationship between cattle and cattle egrets is a type of _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 8 Part A Which of the following is a mutualistic relationship that has a significant effect on an entire ecological community? ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 7 Part A Which one of the following relationships would be considered a win/win? ANSWER: cause the overall health of the prey population to increase illustrate the process of prey switching increase the likelihood of parasitic infections of the prey cause the overall health of the prey population to decrease parasitism commensalism mimicry mutualism Polar bears are the top predator influencing the abundance of seals and sea lions in a region. Hermit crabs inhabit the abandoned shells of marine snails that died long ago. Fungus-plant root associations benefit most of the plants living in a prairie. Mosquitoes function as a vector in the widespread transmission of malaria to people living in Ecuador. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 3 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 23 Part A In examining a terrestrial food web, we expect that the _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 22 Part A Energy is lost as it moves from one trophic level to the next because _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 11 Part A The research on the reintroduction of wolves into Yellowstone National Park reveals that in this ecosystem, wolves represent _____. ANSWER: mutualism predation parasitism commensalism biomass of primary consumers exceeds the biomass of producers number of secondary consumers exceeds the number of producers biomass of primary consumers exceeds the biomass of secondary consumers number of tertiary consumers exceeds the number of secondary consumers one trophic level does not consume the entire trophic level below it some of the calories consumed drive cellular activities and do not add mass some ingested materials are undigested and eliminated All of the listed responses are correct. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 4 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 10 Part A Overhunting of deer followed by a very difficult winter caused the deer population on an island to drop by 80%. In the next two years, visitors to the island were surprised to see many young trees sprouting up at the edges of the forest. This change in the number of saplings as a result of the decline of the deer population represents _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 24 Part A The May 18, 1980, eruption of Mount Saint Helens blasted away soil and produced massive mudflows that scoured the adjacent region down to bare rock. Pumice rock that covered the area is eroding down to smaller gravel. This situation represents _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 15 Part A In some ecosystems, succession increases the chance of disturbance. In these ecosystems, _____. a keystone producer a keystone herbivore a vital primary consumer a keystone predator a trophic cascade a decline in trophic level efficiency the emergence of a new ecological community a loss of a trophic level from a food web primary succession with the removal of all ecological legacies secondary succession with the removal of all ecological legacies secondary succession with several ecological legacies primary succession with several ecological legacies Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 5 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 12 Part A A forest is logged, leaving behind the seeds and saplings of many shrubs and trees. These seeds and saplings represent _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 13 Part A During primary succession, populations of different species replace one another over time because of _____. ANSWER: Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 14 Part A Which one of the following represents a climax community in southern Alaska? ANSWER: ecosystems begin again with primary succession climax communities are expected climax communities may not occur disturbances usually result in virtually no ecological legacy ecological legacies a climax community primary succession pioneer species migration facilitation competition All of the listed responses are correct. Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 6 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM Chapter 6 Reading Quiz Question 9 Part A In general, _____. ANSWER: Score Summary: Your score on this assignment is 0.0%. You received 0 out of a possible total of 19 points. the group of species associated with a white spruce forest lichens and mosses that colonize exposed rock birch and alder trees herbs and a few low shrubs that replace lichens and mosses food webs usually have 8-10 trophic levels food webs are interconnected food chains food chains consist of many interrelated food webs food webs consist of either consumers or producers Chapter 06 Reading Questions http://session.masteringenvironmentalscience.com/myct/assignmentPrintV… 7 of 7 5/21/2014 8:01 PM

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What is the likelihood of dying of a heart attack during sexual activity? Question 21 options: very low fairly high moderate It depends on the type of sexual activity.

What is the likelihood of dying of a heart attack during sexual activity? Question 21 options: very low fairly high moderate It depends on the type of sexual activity.

What is the likelihood of dying of a heart attack … Read More...
Engineering Risk Management Special topic: Beer Game Copyright Old Dominion University, 2017 All rights reserved Revised Class Schedule Lac-Megantic Case Study Part 1: Timeline of events Part 2: Timeline + causal chain of events Part 3: Instructions Evaluate your causal-chain (network) Which are the root causes? Which events have the most causes? What are the relationship of the causes? Which causes have the most influence? Part 4: Instructions Consider these recommendations from TSB Which nodes in your causal chain will be addressed by which of these recommendations? Recap How would you summarize the steps in conducting post-event analysis of an accident? Beer Game Case Study The beer game was developed at MIT in the 1960s. It is an experiential learning business simulation game created by a group of professors at MIT Sloan School of Management in early 1960s to demonstrate a number of key principles of supply chain management. The game is played by teams of four players, often in heated competition, and takes at least one hour to complete.  Beer Game Case Study Beer Game Case Study A truck driver delivers beer once each week to the retailer. Then the retailer places an order with the trucker who returns the order to the wholesaler. There’s a four week lag between ordering and receiving the beer. The retailer and wholesaler do not communicate directly. The retailer sells hundreds of products and the wholesaler distributes many products to a large number of customers. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 1: Lover’s Beer is not very popular but the retailer sells four cases per week on average. Because the lead time is four weeks, the retailer attempts to keep twelve cases in the store by ordering four cases each Monday when the trucker makes a delivery. Week 2: The retailer’s sales of Lover’s beer doubles to eight cases, so on Monday, he orders 8 cases. Week 3: The retailer sells 8 cases. The trucker delivers four cases. To be safe, the retailer decides to order 12 cases of Lover’s beer. Week 4: The retailer learns from some of his younger customers that a music video appearing on TV shows a group singing “I’ll take on last sip of Lover’s beer and run into the sun.” The retailer assumes that this explains the increased demand for the product. The trucker delivers 5 cases. The retailer is nearly sold out, so he orders 16 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 5: The retailer sells the last case, but receives 7 cases. All 7 cases are sold by the end of the week. So again on Monday the retailer orders 16 cases. Week 6: Customers are looking for Lover’s beer. Some put their names on a list to be called when the beer comes in. The trucker delivers only 6 cases and all are sold by the weekend. The retailer orders another 16 cases. Week 7: The trucker delivers 7 cases. The retailer is frustrated, but orders another 16 cases. Week 8: The trucker delivers 5 cases and tells the retailer the beer is backlogged. The retailer is really getting irritated with the wholesaler, but orders 24 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler The wholesaler distributes many brands of beer to a large number of retailers, but he is the only distributor of Lover’s beer. The wholesaler orders 4 truckloads from the brewery truck driver each week and receives the beer after a 4 week lag. The wholesaler’s policy is to keep 12 truckloads in inventory on a continuous basis. Week 6: By week 6 the wholesaler is out of Lover’s beer and responds by ordering 30 truckloads from the brewery. Week 8: By the 8th week most stores are ordering 3 or 4 times more Lovers’ beer than their regular amounts. Week 9: The wholesaler orders more Lover’s beer, but gets only 6 truckloads. Week 10: Only 8 truckloads are delivered, so the wholesaler orders 40. Week 11: Only 12 truckloads are received, and there are 77 truckloads in backlog, so the wholesaler orders 40 more truckloads. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler Week 12: The wholesaler orders 60 more truckloads of Lover’s beer. It appears that the beer is becoming more popular from week to week. Week 13: There is still a huge backlog. Weeks 14-15: The wholesaler receives larger shipments from the brewery, but orders from retailers begin to drop off. Week 16: The trucker delivers 55 truckloads from the brewery, but the wholesaler gets zero orders from retailers. So he stops ordering from the brewery. Week 17: The wholesaler receives another 60 truckloads. Retailers order zero. The wholesaler orders zero. The brewery keeps sending beer. Beer Game Case Study The Brewery The brewery is small but has a reputation for producing high quality beer. Lover’s beer is only one of several products produced at the brewery. Week 6: New orders come in for 40 gross. It takes two weeks to brew the beer. Week 14: Orders continue to come in and the brewery has not been able to catch up on the backlogged orders. The marketing manager begins to wonder how much bonus he will get for increasing sales so dramatically. Week 16: The brewery catches up on the backlog, but orders begin to drop off. Week 18: By week 18 there are no new orders for Lover’s beer. Week 19: The brewery has 100 gross of Lover’s beer in stock, but no orders. So the brewery stops producing Lover’s beer. Weeks 20-23. No orders. Beer Game Case Study At this point all the players blame each other for the excess inventory. Conversations with wholesale and retailer reveal an inventory of 93 cases at the retailer and 220 truckloads at the wholesaler. The marketing manager figures it will take the wholesaler a year to sell the Lover’s beer he has in stock. The retailers must be the problem. The retailer explains that demand increased from 4 cases per week to 8 cases. The wholesaler and marketing manager think demand mushroomed after that, and then fell off, but the retailer explains that didn’t happen. Demand stayed at 8 cases per week. Since he didn’t get the beer he ordered, he kept ordering more in an attempt to keep up with the demand. The marketing manager plans his resignation. Homework 4 Read the case and answer 1+6 questions. 0th What should go right? 1st What can go wrong? 2nd What are the causes and consequences? 3rd What is the likelihood of occurrence? 4rd What can be done to detect, control, and manage them? 5th What are the alternatives? 6th What are the effects beyond this particular time? Homework 4 In 500 words or less, summarize lessons learned in this beer game as it relates to supply chain risk management. Apply one of the tools (CCA, HAZOP, FMEA, etc.) to the case. Work individually and submit before Monday midnight (Feb. 20th). No class on Monday (Feb. 20th).

Engineering Risk Management Special topic: Beer Game Copyright Old Dominion University, 2017 All rights reserved Revised Class Schedule Lac-Megantic Case Study Part 1: Timeline of events Part 2: Timeline + causal chain of events Part 3: Instructions Evaluate your causal-chain (network) Which are the root causes? Which events have the most causes? What are the relationship of the causes? Which causes have the most influence? Part 4: Instructions Consider these recommendations from TSB Which nodes in your causal chain will be addressed by which of these recommendations? Recap How would you summarize the steps in conducting post-event analysis of an accident? Beer Game Case Study The beer game was developed at MIT in the 1960s. It is an experiential learning business simulation game created by a group of professors at MIT Sloan School of Management in early 1960s to demonstrate a number of key principles of supply chain management. The game is played by teams of four players, often in heated competition, and takes at least one hour to complete.  Beer Game Case Study Beer Game Case Study A truck driver delivers beer once each week to the retailer. Then the retailer places an order with the trucker who returns the order to the wholesaler. There’s a four week lag between ordering and receiving the beer. The retailer and wholesaler do not communicate directly. The retailer sells hundreds of products and the wholesaler distributes many products to a large number of customers. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 1: Lover’s Beer is not very popular but the retailer sells four cases per week on average. Because the lead time is four weeks, the retailer attempts to keep twelve cases in the store by ordering four cases each Monday when the trucker makes a delivery. Week 2: The retailer’s sales of Lover’s beer doubles to eight cases, so on Monday, he orders 8 cases. Week 3: The retailer sells 8 cases. The trucker delivers four cases. To be safe, the retailer decides to order 12 cases of Lover’s beer. Week 4: The retailer learns from some of his younger customers that a music video appearing on TV shows a group singing “I’ll take on last sip of Lover’s beer and run into the sun.” The retailer assumes that this explains the increased demand for the product. The trucker delivers 5 cases. The retailer is nearly sold out, so he orders 16 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 5: The retailer sells the last case, but receives 7 cases. All 7 cases are sold by the end of the week. So again on Monday the retailer orders 16 cases. Week 6: Customers are looking for Lover’s beer. Some put their names on a list to be called when the beer comes in. The trucker delivers only 6 cases and all are sold by the weekend. The retailer orders another 16 cases. Week 7: The trucker delivers 7 cases. The retailer is frustrated, but orders another 16 cases. Week 8: The trucker delivers 5 cases and tells the retailer the beer is backlogged. The retailer is really getting irritated with the wholesaler, but orders 24 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler The wholesaler distributes many brands of beer to a large number of retailers, but he is the only distributor of Lover’s beer. The wholesaler orders 4 truckloads from the brewery truck driver each week and receives the beer after a 4 week lag. The wholesaler’s policy is to keep 12 truckloads in inventory on a continuous basis. Week 6: By week 6 the wholesaler is out of Lover’s beer and responds by ordering 30 truckloads from the brewery. Week 8: By the 8th week most stores are ordering 3 or 4 times more Lovers’ beer than their regular amounts. Week 9: The wholesaler orders more Lover’s beer, but gets only 6 truckloads. Week 10: Only 8 truckloads are delivered, so the wholesaler orders 40. Week 11: Only 12 truckloads are received, and there are 77 truckloads in backlog, so the wholesaler orders 40 more truckloads. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler Week 12: The wholesaler orders 60 more truckloads of Lover’s beer. It appears that the beer is becoming more popular from week to week. Week 13: There is still a huge backlog. Weeks 14-15: The wholesaler receives larger shipments from the brewery, but orders from retailers begin to drop off. Week 16: The trucker delivers 55 truckloads from the brewery, but the wholesaler gets zero orders from retailers. So he stops ordering from the brewery. Week 17: The wholesaler receives another 60 truckloads. Retailers order zero. The wholesaler orders zero. The brewery keeps sending beer. Beer Game Case Study The Brewery The brewery is small but has a reputation for producing high quality beer. Lover’s beer is only one of several products produced at the brewery. Week 6: New orders come in for 40 gross. It takes two weeks to brew the beer. Week 14: Orders continue to come in and the brewery has not been able to catch up on the backlogged orders. The marketing manager begins to wonder how much bonus he will get for increasing sales so dramatically. Week 16: The brewery catches up on the backlog, but orders begin to drop off. Week 18: By week 18 there are no new orders for Lover’s beer. Week 19: The brewery has 100 gross of Lover’s beer in stock, but no orders. So the brewery stops producing Lover’s beer. Weeks 20-23. No orders. Beer Game Case Study At this point all the players blame each other for the excess inventory. Conversations with wholesale and retailer reveal an inventory of 93 cases at the retailer and 220 truckloads at the wholesaler. The marketing manager figures it will take the wholesaler a year to sell the Lover’s beer he has in stock. The retailers must be the problem. The retailer explains that demand increased from 4 cases per week to 8 cases. The wholesaler and marketing manager think demand mushroomed after that, and then fell off, but the retailer explains that didn’t happen. Demand stayed at 8 cases per week. Since he didn’t get the beer he ordered, he kept ordering more in an attempt to keep up with the demand. The marketing manager plans his resignation. Homework 4 Read the case and answer 1+6 questions. 0th What should go right? 1st What can go wrong? 2nd What are the causes and consequences? 3rd What is the likelihood of occurrence? 4rd What can be done to detect, control, and manage them? 5th What are the alternatives? 6th What are the effects beyond this particular time? Homework 4 In 500 words or less, summarize lessons learned in this beer game as it relates to supply chain risk management. Apply one of the tools (CCA, HAZOP, FMEA, etc.) to the case. Work individually and submit before Monday midnight (Feb. 20th). No class on Monday (Feb. 20th).

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After reading the supplement article on Business Analytics linked to the week 1 schedule, write an essay on how business analytics impacts you today, or its potential role in your chosen career path. Do research for your paper, or interview someone who works in your area. The goals of this paper are two-fold: (1) focus on high quality writing, using the COBE Writing Styles Guide for writing help and citations. (2) consider the importance of BI from a personal/work/career perspective.

After reading the supplement article on Business Analytics linked to the week 1 schedule, write an essay on how business analytics impacts you today, or its potential role in your chosen career path. Do research for your paper, or interview someone who works in your area. The goals of this paper are two-fold: (1) focus on high quality writing, using the COBE Writing Styles Guide for writing help and citations. (2) consider the importance of BI from a personal/work/career perspective.

  Business analytics importance and its potential     Introduction … Read More...
Book review The Shareholder Value Myth: How Putting Shareholders First Harms Investors, Corporations, and the Public by Lynn Stout Provide 1) a 900 word review of this book (word range 900-1,200) and 2) a 350 word reflection where you force yourself to relate the message of the book . As per the format of the review, I like the ones done by the folks of the WSJ. This is an example: http://forums.delphiforums.com/diversecity/messages?msg=17531.1264 or http://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-how-adam-smith-can-change-your-life-by-russ-roberts-1413846808?KEYWORDS=book+reviews

Book review The Shareholder Value Myth: How Putting Shareholders First Harms Investors, Corporations, and the Public by Lynn Stout Provide 1) a 900 word review of this book (word range 900-1,200) and 2) a 350 word reflection where you force yourself to relate the message of the book . As per the format of the review, I like the ones done by the folks of the WSJ. This is an example: http://forums.delphiforums.com/diversecity/messages?msg=17531.1264 or http://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-how-adam-smith-can-change-your-life-by-russ-roberts-1413846808?KEYWORDS=book+reviews

The Shareholder Value Myth: How Putting Shareholders First Harms Investors, … Read More...
You have had the unique opportunity to develop a career plan in this academic program. By determining career goals and objectives, you should have become insightful and capable of assessing your current skills and abilities and their respective usefulness in attaining that ideal position. According to your plan, what training and education may be required before advancement is possible with respect to your future plans? What is the biggest obstacle you face in search of success?

You have had the unique opportunity to develop a career plan in this academic program. By determining career goals and objectives, you should have become insightful and capable of assessing your current skills and abilities and their respective usefulness in attaining that ideal position. According to your plan, what training and education may be required before advancement is possible with respect to your future plans? What is the biggest obstacle you face in search of success?

We can’t escape from the reality that if we wish … Read More...
My Success Assignment ‘where you want to be in ten years’ Objective Make a plan and try to see all the details. Does some research, ask questions, and consider what it’s going to take to get where you want to be.

My Success Assignment ‘where you want to be in ten years’ Objective Make a plan and try to see all the details. Does some research, ask questions, and consider what it’s going to take to get where you want to be.

  My Road map for career planning is based on … Read More...
CEE 260 / MIE 273 Probability & Statistics Name: Final Exam, version D — 100 points (120 minutes) PLEASE READ QUESTIONS CAREFULLY and SHOW YOUR WORK! CALCULATORS PERMITTED – ABSOLUTELY NO REFERENCES! 1. Suppose the waiting time (in minutes) for your 911 SC Targa to reach operating temperature in the morning is uniformly distributed on [0,10], while the waiting time in the evening is uniformly distributed on [0,5] independent of morning waiting time. a. (5%) If you drive your Targa each morning and evening for a week (5 morning and 5 evening rides), what is the variance of your total waiting time? b. (5%) What is the expected value of the difference between morning and evening waiting time on a given day? 2. (10%) Find the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of ϴ when Xi ~ Exponential(ϴ) and you have observed X1, X2, X3, …, Xn. 2 3. The waiting time for delivery of a new Porsche 911 Carrera at the local dealership is distributed exponentially with a population mean of 3.55 months and population standard deviation of 1.1 months. Recently, in an effort to reduce the waiting time, the dealership has experimented with an online ordering system. A sample of 100 customers during a recent sales promotion generated a mean waiting time of 3.18 months using the new system. Assume that the population standard deviation of the waiting time has not changed from 1.1 months. (hint: the source distribution is irrelevant, but its parameters are relevant) a. (15%) What is the probability that the average wait time is between 3.2 and 6.4 months? (hint: draw a sketch for full credit) b. (10%) At the 0.05 level of significance, using the critical values approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the population mean waiting time to accept delivery is less than 3.55 months? c. (10%) At the 0.01 level of significance, using the p-value approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the population mean waiting time to accept delivery is less than 3.55 months? 3 4. Porsche AG is a leading manufacturer of performance automobiles. The 911 Carrera model, Porsche’s premier sports car, reaches a top track speed of 180 miles per hour. Engineers claim the new advanced technology 911 GT2 automatically adjusts its top speed depending on the weather conditions. Suppose that in an effort to test this claim, Porsche selects a few 911 GT2 models to test drive on the company track in Stuttgart, Germany. The average top speed for the sample of 25 test drives is 182.36 mph, with a standard deviation of 7.24 mph. a. (5%) Without using complete sentences, what might be some problems with the sampling conducted above? Identify and explain at least 2. b. (15%) Using the critical values approach to hypothesis testing and a 0.10 level of significance, is there evidence that the mean top track speed is different for the 911 GT2? (hint: state the null and alternative hypotheses, draw a sketch, and show your work for full credit) c. (10%) Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean top speed of the 911 GT2. d. (5%) Compare the results of (b) and (c). What conclusions do you reach about the top speed of the new 911 GT2? 4 5. (10%) Porsche USA believes that sales of the venerable 911 Carrera are a function of annual income (in thousands of dollars) and a risk tolerance index of the potential buyer. Determine the regression equation and provide a succinct analysis of Porsche’s conjecture using the following Excel results. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Stat istics Multiple R 0.805073 R Square 0.648142 Adjusted R Square 0.606747 Standard Error 7.76312 Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 1887.227445 943.6137225 15.65747206 0.000139355 Residual 17 1024.522555 60.26603265 Total 19 2911.75 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 23.50557 6.845545641 3.433702952 0.003167982 9.062731576 37.94840898 Income 0.613408 0.125421229 4.890786567 0.000137795 0.348792801 0.878024121 Risk Index -0.00126 0.004519817 -0.278357691 0.784095184 -0.010794106 0.008277854 BONUS (5 points) What is the probability that 2 or more students in our class of 22 have the same birthday?

CEE 260 / MIE 273 Probability & Statistics Name: Final Exam, version D — 100 points (120 minutes) PLEASE READ QUESTIONS CAREFULLY and SHOW YOUR WORK! CALCULATORS PERMITTED – ABSOLUTELY NO REFERENCES! 1. Suppose the waiting time (in minutes) for your 911 SC Targa to reach operating temperature in the morning is uniformly distributed on [0,10], while the waiting time in the evening is uniformly distributed on [0,5] independent of morning waiting time. a. (5%) If you drive your Targa each morning and evening for a week (5 morning and 5 evening rides), what is the variance of your total waiting time? b. (5%) What is the expected value of the difference between morning and evening waiting time on a given day? 2. (10%) Find the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of ϴ when Xi ~ Exponential(ϴ) and you have observed X1, X2, X3, …, Xn. 2 3. The waiting time for delivery of a new Porsche 911 Carrera at the local dealership is distributed exponentially with a population mean of 3.55 months and population standard deviation of 1.1 months. Recently, in an effort to reduce the waiting time, the dealership has experimented with an online ordering system. A sample of 100 customers during a recent sales promotion generated a mean waiting time of 3.18 months using the new system. Assume that the population standard deviation of the waiting time has not changed from 1.1 months. (hint: the source distribution is irrelevant, but its parameters are relevant) a. (15%) What is the probability that the average wait time is between 3.2 and 6.4 months? (hint: draw a sketch for full credit) b. (10%) At the 0.05 level of significance, using the critical values approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the population mean waiting time to accept delivery is less than 3.55 months? c. (10%) At the 0.01 level of significance, using the p-value approach to hypothesis testing, is there evidence that the population mean waiting time to accept delivery is less than 3.55 months? 3 4. Porsche AG is a leading manufacturer of performance automobiles. The 911 Carrera model, Porsche’s premier sports car, reaches a top track speed of 180 miles per hour. Engineers claim the new advanced technology 911 GT2 automatically adjusts its top speed depending on the weather conditions. Suppose that in an effort to test this claim, Porsche selects a few 911 GT2 models to test drive on the company track in Stuttgart, Germany. The average top speed for the sample of 25 test drives is 182.36 mph, with a standard deviation of 7.24 mph. a. (5%) Without using complete sentences, what might be some problems with the sampling conducted above? Identify and explain at least 2. b. (15%) Using the critical values approach to hypothesis testing and a 0.10 level of significance, is there evidence that the mean top track speed is different for the 911 GT2? (hint: state the null and alternative hypotheses, draw a sketch, and show your work for full credit) c. (10%) Set up a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean top speed of the 911 GT2. d. (5%) Compare the results of (b) and (c). What conclusions do you reach about the top speed of the new 911 GT2? 4 5. (10%) Porsche USA believes that sales of the venerable 911 Carrera are a function of annual income (in thousands of dollars) and a risk tolerance index of the potential buyer. Determine the regression equation and provide a succinct analysis of Porsche’s conjecture using the following Excel results. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Stat istics Multiple R 0.805073 R Square 0.648142 Adjusted R Square 0.606747 Standard Error 7.76312 Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 1887.227445 943.6137225 15.65747206 0.000139355 Residual 17 1024.522555 60.26603265 Total 19 2911.75 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 23.50557 6.845545641 3.433702952 0.003167982 9.062731576 37.94840898 Income 0.613408 0.125421229 4.890786567 0.000137795 0.348792801 0.878024121 Risk Index -0.00126 0.004519817 -0.278357691 0.784095184 -0.010794106 0.008277854 BONUS (5 points) What is the probability that 2 or more students in our class of 22 have the same birthday?

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