Engineering Risk Management Special topic: Beer Game Copyright Old Dominion University, 2017 All rights reserved Revised Class Schedule Lac-Megantic Case Study Part 1: Timeline of events Part 2: Timeline + causal chain of events Part 3: Instructions Evaluate your causal-chain (network) Which are the root causes? Which events have the most causes? What are the relationship of the causes? Which causes have the most influence? Part 4: Instructions Consider these recommendations from TSB Which nodes in your causal chain will be addressed by which of these recommendations? Recap How would you summarize the steps in conducting post-event analysis of an accident? Beer Game Case Study The beer game was developed at MIT in the 1960s. It is an experiential learning business simulation game created by a group of professors at MIT Sloan School of Management in early 1960s to demonstrate a number of key principles of supply chain management. The game is played by teams of four players, often in heated competition, and takes at least one hour to complete. Beer Game Case Study Beer Game Case Study A truck driver delivers beer once each week to the retailer. Then the retailer places an order with the trucker who returns the order to the wholesaler. There’s a four week lag between ordering and receiving the beer. The retailer and wholesaler do not communicate directly. The retailer sells hundreds of products and the wholesaler distributes many products to a large number of customers. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 1: Lover’s Beer is not very popular but the retailer sells four cases per week on average. Because the lead time is four weeks, the retailer attempts to keep twelve cases in the store by ordering four cases each Monday when the trucker makes a delivery. Week 2: The retailer’s sales of Lover’s beer doubles to eight cases, so on Monday, he orders 8 cases. Week 3: The retailer sells 8 cases. The trucker delivers four cases. To be safe, the retailer decides to order 12 cases of Lover’s beer. Week 4: The retailer learns from some of his younger customers that a music video appearing on TV shows a group singing “I’ll take on last sip of Lover’s beer and run into the sun.” The retailer assumes that this explains the increased demand for the product. The trucker delivers 5 cases. The retailer is nearly sold out, so he orders 16 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Retailer Week 5: The retailer sells the last case, but receives 7 cases. All 7 cases are sold by the end of the week. So again on Monday the retailer orders 16 cases. Week 6: Customers are looking for Lover’s beer. Some put their names on a list to be called when the beer comes in. The trucker delivers only 6 cases and all are sold by the weekend. The retailer orders another 16 cases. Week 7: The trucker delivers 7 cases. The retailer is frustrated, but orders another 16 cases. Week 8: The trucker delivers 5 cases and tells the retailer the beer is backlogged. The retailer is really getting irritated with the wholesaler, but orders 24 cases. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler The wholesaler distributes many brands of beer to a large number of retailers, but he is the only distributor of Lover’s beer. The wholesaler orders 4 truckloads from the brewery truck driver each week and receives the beer after a 4 week lag. The wholesaler’s policy is to keep 12 truckloads in inventory on a continuous basis. Week 6: By week 6 the wholesaler is out of Lover’s beer and responds by ordering 30 truckloads from the brewery. Week 8: By the 8th week most stores are ordering 3 or 4 times more Lovers’ beer than their regular amounts. Week 9: The wholesaler orders more Lover’s beer, but gets only 6 truckloads. Week 10: Only 8 truckloads are delivered, so the wholesaler orders 40. Week 11: Only 12 truckloads are received, and there are 77 truckloads in backlog, so the wholesaler orders 40 more truckloads. Beer Game Case Study The Wholesaler Week 12: The wholesaler orders 60 more truckloads of Lover’s beer. It appears that the beer is becoming more popular from week to week. Week 13: There is still a huge backlog. Weeks 14-15: The wholesaler receives larger shipments from the brewery, but orders from retailers begin to drop off. Week 16: The trucker delivers 55 truckloads from the brewery, but the wholesaler gets zero orders from retailers. So he stops ordering from the brewery. Week 17: The wholesaler receives another 60 truckloads. Retailers order zero. The wholesaler orders zero. The brewery keeps sending beer. Beer Game Case Study The Brewery The brewery is small but has a reputation for producing high quality beer. Lover’s beer is only one of several products produced at the brewery. Week 6: New orders come in for 40 gross. It takes two weeks to brew the beer. Week 14: Orders continue to come in and the brewery has not been able to catch up on the backlogged orders. The marketing manager begins to wonder how much bonus he will get for increasing sales so dramatically. Week 16: The brewery catches up on the backlog, but orders begin to drop off. Week 18: By week 18 there are no new orders for Lover’s beer. Week 19: The brewery has 100 gross of Lover’s beer in stock, but no orders. So the brewery stops producing Lover’s beer. Weeks 20-23. No orders. Beer Game Case Study At this point all the players blame each other for the excess inventory. Conversations with wholesale and retailer reveal an inventory of 93 cases at the retailer and 220 truckloads at the wholesaler. The marketing manager figures it will take the wholesaler a year to sell the Lover’s beer he has in stock. The retailers must be the problem. The retailer explains that demand increased from 4 cases per week to 8 cases. The wholesaler and marketing manager think demand mushroomed after that, and then fell off, but the retailer explains that didn’t happen. Demand stayed at 8 cases per week. Since he didn’t get the beer he ordered, he kept ordering more in an attempt to keep up with the demand. The marketing manager plans his resignation. Homework 4 Read the case and answer 1+6 questions. 0th What should go right? 1st What can go wrong? 2nd What are the causes and consequences? 3rd What is the likelihood of occurrence? 4rd What can be done to detect, control, and manage them? 5th What are the alternatives? 6th What are the effects beyond this particular time? Homework 4 In 500 words or less, summarize lessons learned in this beer game as it relates to supply chain risk management. Apply one of the tools (CCA, HAZOP, FMEA, etc.) to the case. Work individually and submit before Monday midnight (Feb. 20th). No class on Monday (Feb. 20th).
Sex, Gender, and Popular Culture Spring 2015 Look through popular magazines, and see if you can find advertisements that objectify women in order to sell a product. Alternately, you may use an advertisement on television (but make sure to provide a link to the ad so I can see it!). Study these images then write a paper about objectification that deals with all or some of the following: • What effect(s), if any, do you think the objectification of women’s bodies has on our culture? • Jean Kilbourne states “turning a human being into a thing is almost always the first step toward justifying violence against that person.” What do you think she means by this? Do you agree with her reasoning? Why or why not? • Some people would argue that depicting a woman’s body as an object is a form of art. What is your opinion of this point of view? Explain your reasoning. • Why do you think that women are objectified more often than men are? • How does sexualization and objectification play out differently across racial lines? • Kilbourne explains that the consequences of being objectified are different – and more serious – for women than for men. Do you agree? How is the world different for women than it is for men? How do objectified images of women interact with those in our culture differently from the way images of men do? Why is it important to look at images in the context of the culture? • What is the difference between sexual objectification and sexual subjectification? (Ros Gill ) • How do ads construct violent white masculinity and how does that vision of masculinity hurt both men and women? Throughout your written analysis, be sure to make clear and specific reference to the images you selected, and please submit these images with your paper. Make sure you engage with and reference to at least 4 of the following authors: Kilbourne, Bordo, Hunter & Soto, Rose, Durham, Gill, Katz, Schuchardt, Ono and Buescher. Guidelines: Keep your content focused on structural, systemic, institutional factors rather than the individual: BE ANALYTICAL NOT ANECDOTAL. Avoid using the first person or including personal stories/reactions. You must make sure to actively engage with your readings: these essays need to be informed and framed by the theoretical material you have been reading this semester. Keep within the 4-6 page limit; use 12-point font, double spacing and 1-inch margins. Use formal writing conventions (introduction/thesis statement, body, conclusion) and correct grammar. Resources may be cited within the text of your paper, i.e. (Walters, 2013).
The Redeemers were an democratically eclectic group of people constituted … Read More...
here is the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=760lwYmpXbc In his Prison Experiment, Professor Philip Zimbardo wanted to test the behavior of good people when they are put into evil places. In the short amount of time that his experiment ran, hid findings were shocking. The students who played the role of the guards became sadistic, and the students that who played the role of the prisoners became extremely stressed. McLaren explained to us that since the beginning of time, all humans have had an appetite for violence. McLaren also explains that in a world where violence is also a means of entertainment, it only adds to our appetite for violence. Think about how the information that McLaren shares and how it relates to the Stanford Prison Experiment. McLaren shares with us that name calling is the beginning stage of dehumanizing, and when one succeeds in name calling, we decide to extend our powers and become violent and uncaring. McLaren also uses many examples of the world’s history, specifically regarding religion and war. McLaren explains that the mentality of everyone that goes into war believes that their enemy deserves everything that they get. Compare McLaren’s findings with The Stanford Prison Experiment. Zimbardo concluded that his students (the good people) were defeated by the prison (the evil place). Can you think of a story or a situation where the good person overcame the evil place? Can one’s attitude and/or morality be so strong that it can allow you to overcome anything? The manner in which, the guard “John Wayne”, treated the prisoners was very controversial. Years later he admitted himself that he does regret his behavior, but could it be possible that he wasn’t acting? Is it true what prisoner 416 said? Can someone contribute to a role so much that it starts to show who you really are as a person? If we were put in the shoes of “John Wayne” would we have behaved the same? Are ethics totally thrown out the window when given that position of power?
Posted By: User_sq9nw6 (PrestoExperts) instructions: This assignment focuses on gender roles characterized in “The Legend of Sleepy Hollow”. Discuss the role gender has played in each of these movies/stories considering 1 male character and 1 female character to support your conclusions. First ask yourself how males and females are “typically” portrayed in folklore-begin your comparison there. I am looking for a comparison between the “Gutenburg/Original” version (found on Libguides) and the “new (Johnny Depp-Sleepy Hollow” version. How is the *new* version modified to express contemporary social mores/ideas. REMEMBER-You MUST cite your sources with in-text cites and a works cited at the end of your paper. Use the Purdue OWL link on Libguides if you need guidance. search criteria: internet, Turnitin student paper database, periodicals, journals, & publications rubric set: none
Our understanding of the role played by genes in many human characteristics – for example, body size, performance on IQ tests, and personality traits – is advancing rapidly. In this new genetic era, the role of the environment _____.
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Team Project Specification – “Outsmart the Computer” Due: 11:59 P.M. Tuesday, April 25, 2017 The project is to design and write a C++17/FLTK computer game program with a graphical user interface. The object of the game is to keep the computer from guessing the player’s next choice of two possible values. We will call the choices “heads” and “tails” below, but you are free to use maroon/white, on/off, up/down, 0/1, etc. instead. The player starts by making a certain number of choices, attempting to be as random as possible, which the computer observes. Then for each of the following choices the computer guesses in advance, and then compares its guess to the next choice. For difficulty level 1 (see below) there are 32 choices in the observation phase and 32 choices in the guessing phase. The player earns 10 points for each choice the computer guessed wrong, so for difficulty level 1 the maximum score is 320. The program must: 1. Start with an attractive splash screen showing (at least) the name of the game, the team number, and the team members’ names. Feel free to add team members’ pictures, play music, etc. Have a START button which then explains how to play the game. 2. Ask for a difficulty level from 1 to 5; this determines the number of rounds to play, 32/64/128/256/512 respectively. Display the top 5 scores for that difficulty level (read in from the disk; the top scores file starts out empty). 3. Ask for the player’s initials and display them with a blank score below the top 5 scores. 4. Instruct the player to make that many choices, attempting to be as random as possible, and show how many choices remain. For example, for difficulty level 1 the setup screen might say “You have 32 choices to go; click Heads or Tails.” Remember to redraw the screen each time you change a graphical object! 5. After that, for each of the next 32 player choices (for difficulty level 1), the computer first makes a secret guess based on the percentage of heads for the most recent 32 choices. For example, if the program calculates that 75% of the most recent 32 choices were heads, then 75% of the time it will guess that the next choice will be heads and 25% of the time it will guess that the next choice will be tails. When the computer has made its secret guess, tell the player to choose and then have the computer say something like “I guessed right—no points for you!” or “You outsmarted me—10 points for you!” 6. When all the guessing rounds are done, add the player’s score and initials to the scores list, sort the list of 6 scores, and write the top 5 out to disk with initials. Then the next time the game is played, that file will be read in and displayed in step 2 above. Ask the player if they want to play another game or quit. EXTRA ITEMS • Add a countdown timer to limit the player to 5 seconds per move. If time expires then say “Time’s up! No points! Next move?” Display a digital clock with the time remaining. Hint: Check the online FLTK documentation for Fl::add_timeout. Note: A timeout just reduces the number of remaining choices in this guessing round (thereby reducing the maximum player score). • Visually display the per cent of the times the computer has guessed correctly so far in this game. • Modify the game to have three choices, e.g., red/white/blue, 1/2/3, etc. ________________________________________________________________________ This is a team project, with three or four students on a team. The instructor will assign the teams. (Note: If there are any problems with your team assignment, please talk to your TA promptly.) Divide up the code, with each student on a team of 3 doing two of the six items on page 1. If you have a fourth team member, that person must do one of the extra items. A team of 3 will receive 5 points extra credit for doing one “Extra Item” or 10 points for doing two. A team of 4 will receive 5 points extra credit for doing a second “Extra Item.” You must use at least two C++11 or C++14 or C++17 features, such as auto and range-based for. (See the reference pages on http://cplusplus.com/ to see if a feature is C++11 or C++14 or C++17.) You must write at least two classes of your own, with separate header and implementation files. Follow good style, and limit each function to no more than 24 lines (one terminal window). Each team member is expected to have a rough idea of how all the code works, and should be able to explain in detail how their own part of the code works. Choose a clever name for your team (but keep it clean ). Be creative in deciding how to meet these specifications in an attractive and user-friendly way, but get the basic functionality working before you try to make it too fancy, or you may run out of time! All user input and output must be through the GUI, not the console window. However, you may use the console window for printing debugging messages for the developers (your team). Your program should compile and run without change on the Visual C++ 2015 environment in the lab or build.tamu.edu with g++ -std=c++17 and X windows. Your program must be submitted both to CSNET and also on a CD or DVD. The project report (described below) should be submitted on paper to your TA, along with your CD or DVD. You only need to submit one report and CD or DVD and CSNET file per team. Write a report according to the outline below. All team members will receive the same project grade, unless some team member does not do his/her part (see report outline below). Important! You must demonstrate your project to your TA or it will not be graded! Note about teamwork: Immediately exchange contact information with your teammates and schedule times to meet and work on the project. If your teammates are in the same lab section, you have the two hours per week during lab, but in any case you need to schedule meeting times outside of lab. As meeting scheduling can be difficult, use this lab time wisely! Attendance will be taken during lab, so that complaints of “We could never find a time to meet” will not be taken seriously. REPORT OUTLINE The project report must be printed on a laser printer. The report should include the following sections: 1. Team information (team name, members’ names, who did what, did each member do a fair share of the work) 2. Statement of the problem, significance, etc. 3. Restrictions and limitations 4. Explanation of your approach (analysis to choose a strategy for programming the project, how you coded it, etc.) 5. Sample run (screen shots) 6. Results and analysis 7. Conclusions – What did you show? What did you learn? 8. Future research (how your program could be improved or extended) 9. Instructions on how to run your program 10. Listing of the COMMENTED program 11. Bibliography – references used, if any