Many people believe that choosing a job and choosing a career are the same. You know my position; I believe a JOB is Just over Broke. What is your position? Explain the differences between a job and a career.

Many people believe that choosing a job and choosing a career are the same. You know my position; I believe a JOB is Just over Broke. What is your position? Explain the differences between a job and a career.

A job is essentially one thing an individual do to … Read More...
CIS CSC 315 01 Middleware for Enterprise Architecture – Winter 2014 Microsoft Project Objectives: Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is business management software—usually a suite of integrated applications—that a company can use to store and manage data from every stage of business, including: • Product planning, cost and development • Manufacturing • Marketing and sales • Inventory management • Shipping and payment ERP provides an integrated real-time view of core business processes, using common databases maintained by a database management system. ERP systems track business resources—cash, raw materials, production capacity—and the status of business commitments: orders, purchase orders, and payroll. The applications that make up the system share data across the various departments (manufacturing, purchasing, sales, accounting, etc.) that entered the data. ERP facilitates information flow between all business functions, and manages connections to outside stakeholders. Put together a PowerPoint presentation (about 15 minutes) addressing the issues below. ALL team members will participate in the presentation. The only “deliverable” is the PowerPoint presentation itself. The presentations will be the last day of class for the semester. 13-Discuss a failure or two.

CIS CSC 315 01 Middleware for Enterprise Architecture – Winter 2014 Microsoft Project Objectives: Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is business management software—usually a suite of integrated applications—that a company can use to store and manage data from every stage of business, including: • Product planning, cost and development • Manufacturing • Marketing and sales • Inventory management • Shipping and payment ERP provides an integrated real-time view of core business processes, using common databases maintained by a database management system. ERP systems track business resources—cash, raw materials, production capacity—and the status of business commitments: orders, purchase orders, and payroll. The applications that make up the system share data across the various departments (manufacturing, purchasing, sales, accounting, etc.) that entered the data. ERP facilitates information flow between all business functions, and manages connections to outside stakeholders. Put together a PowerPoint presentation (about 15 minutes) addressing the issues below. ALL team members will participate in the presentation. The only “deliverable” is the PowerPoint presentation itself. The presentations will be the last day of class for the semester. 13-Discuss a failure or two.

ERP solutions are intended for a huge audience of companies … Read More...
. What behaviors indicate psychological distress? Name 5 and explain.

. What behaviors indicate psychological distress? Name 5 and explain.

The term ‘distress’ is commonly used in nursing literature to … Read More...
Statistical Methods (STAT 4303) Review for Final Comprehensive Exam Measures of Central Tendency, Dispersion Q.1. The data below represents the test scores obtained by students in college algebra class. 10,12,15,20,13,16,14 Calculate (a) Mean (b) Median (c) Mode (d) Variance, s2 (e) Coefficient of variation (CV) Q.2. The data below represents the test scores obtained by students in English class. 12,15,16,18,13,10,17,20 Calculate (a) Mean (b) Median (c) Mode (d) Variance, s2 (e) Coefficient of variation (CV) (f) Compare the results of Q.1 and Q.2, Which scores College Algebra or English do you think is more precise (less spread)? Q.3 Following data represents the score obtained by students in one of the exams 9, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 21, 22, 25, 25, 26 Create a frequency table to calculate the following descriptive statistics (a) mean (b) median (c) mode (d) first and third quartiles (e) Construct Box and Whisker plot. (f) Comment on the shape of the distribution. (g) Find inter quartile range (IQR). (h) Are there any outliers (based on IQR technique)? In the above problem, if the score 26 is replaced by 37 (i) What will happen to the mean? Will it increase, decrease or remains the same? (j) What will be the new median? (k) What can you say about the effect of outliers on mean and median? Q.4 Following data represents the score obtained by students in one of the exams 19, 14, 14, 15, 17, 16, 17, 20, 20, 21, 21, 22, 25, 25, 26, 27, 28 Create a frequency table to calculate the following descriptive statistics a) mean b) median c) mode d) first and third quartiles e) Construct Box and Whisker plot. f) Comment on the shape of the distribution. g) Find inter quartile range (IQR). h) Are there any outliers (based on IQR technique)? In the above problem, if the score 28 is replaced by 48 i) What will happen to the mean? Will it increase, decrease or remains the same? j) What will be the new median? k) What can you say about the effect of outliers on mean and median? Q.5 Consider the following data of height (in inch) and weight(in lbs). Height(x) Frequency 50 2 52 3 55 2 60 4 62 3  Find the mean height.  What is the variance of height? Also, find the standard deviation. (c) Find the coefficient of variation (CV). Q.6. The following table shows the number of miles run during one week for a sample of 20 runners: Miles Mid-value (x) Frequency (f) 5.5-10.5 1 10.5-15.5 2 15.5-20.5 3 20.5-25.5 5 25.5-30.5 4 (a) Find the average (mean) miles run. (Hint: Find mid-value of mile range first) (b) What is the variance of miles run? Also, find the standard deviation. (c) Find the coefficient of variation (CV). Q.7. (a) If the mean of 20 observations is 20.5, find the sum of all observations? (b) If the mean of 30 observations is 40, find the sum of all observations? Probability Q.8 Out of forty students, 14 are taking English Composition and 29 are taking Chemistry. a) How many students are in both classes? b) What is the probability that a randomly-chosen student from this group is taking only the Chemistry class? Q.9 A drawer contains 4 red balls, 5 green balls, and 5 blue balls. One ball is taken from the drawer and then replaced. Another ball is taken from the drawer. What is the probability that (Draw tree diagram to facilitate your calculation). (a) both balls are red (b) first ball is red (c) both balls are of same colors (d) both balls are of different colors (e) first ball is red and second ball is blue (f) first ball is red or blue Q.10 A drawer contains 3 red balls, 5 green balls, and 5 blue balls. One ball is taken from the drawer and not replaced. Another ball is then taken from the drawer. Draw tree diagram to facilitate your calculation. What is the probability that (a) both balls are red (b) first ball is red (c) both balls are of same colors (d) both balls are of different colors (e) first ball is red and second ball is blue (f) first ball is red or blue Q. 11 Missile A has 45% chance of hitting target. Missile B has 55% chance of hitting a target. What is the probability that (i) both miss the target. (ii) at least one will hit the target. (iii) exactly one will hit the target. Q. 12 A politician from D party speaks truth 65% of times; another politician from rival party speaks truth 75% of times. Both politicians were asked about their personal love affair with their own office secretary, what is the probability that (i) both lie the actual fact . (ii) at least one will speak truth. (iii) exactly one speaks the truth. (iv) both speak the truth. Q.13 The question, “Do you drink alcohol?” was asked to 220 people. Results are shown in the table. . Yes No Total Male 48 82 Female 24 66 Total (a) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male also drinks? (b) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a female? (c) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual drinks? (d) A person is selected at random and if the person is female, what is the probability that she drinks? (e) What is the probability that a randomly selected alcoholic person is a male? Q.14 A professor, Dr. Drakula, taught courses that included statements from across the five colleges abbreviated as AH, AS, BA, ED and EN. He taught at Texas A&M University – Kingsville (TAMUK) during the span of five academic years AY09 to AY13. The following table shows the total number of graduates during AY09 to AY13. One day, he was running late to his class. He was so focused on the class that he did not stop for a red light. As soon as he crossed through the intersection, a police officer Asked him to stop. ( a ) It is turned out that the police officer was TAMUK graduate during the past five years. What is the probability that the Police Officer was from ED College? ( b ) What is the probability that the Police Officer graduated in the academic year of 2011? ( c ) If the traffic officer graduated from TAMUK in the academic year of 2011(AY11). What is the conditional probability that he graduated from the ED college? ( d ) Are the events the academic year “AY 11” and the college of Education “ED” independent? Yes or no , why? Discrete Distribution Q.15 Find k and probability for X=2 and X=4. X 1 2 3 4 5 P(X=x) 0.1 3k 0.2 2k 0.2 (Hint: First find k, and then plug in) Also, calculate the expected value of X, E(X) and variance V(X). A game plan is derived based on above table, a player wins $5 if he can blindly choose 3 and loses $1 if he chooses other numbers.What is his expected win or loss per game? If he plays this game for 20 times, what is total win or lose? Q.16 Find k. X 3 4 5 6 7 P(X=x) k 2k 2k k 2k (Hint: First find k, and then plug in) Also, calculate the expected value of X, E(X) and variance V(X). A game plan is derived based on above table, a player wins $5 if he can blindly choose 3 and loses $1 if he chooses other numbers. What is his expected win or loss per game? If he plays this game for 20 times, what is total win or lose? Binomial Distribution: Q.17 (a) Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover? (b) A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the probability of (i) more than 2 hits? (ii) at least 3 misses? (c) which of the following are binomial experiments? Explain the reason. i. Telephone surveying a group of 200 people to ask if they voted for George Bush. ii. Counting the average number of dogs seen at a veterinarian’s office daily. iii. You take a survey of 50 traffic lights in a certain city, at 3 p.m., recording whether the light was red, green, or yellow at that time. iv. You are at a fair, playing “pop the balloon” with 6 darts. There are 20 balloons. 10 of the balloons have a ticket inside that say “win,” and 10 have a ticket that says “lose.” Normal Distribution Q.18 Use standard normal distribution table to find the following probabilities: (a) P(Z<2.5) (b) P(Z< -1.3) (c) P(Z>0.12) (d) P(Z> -2.15) (e) P(0.11<Z<0.22) (f) P(-0.11<Z<0.5) Q.19. Use normal distribution table to find the missing values (?). (a) P(Z< ?)=0.40 (b) P(Z< ?)=0.76 (c) P(Z> ?)=0.87 (d) P(Z> ?)=0.34 Q.20. The length of life of certain type of light bulb is normally distributed with mean=220hrs and standard deviation=20hrs. (a) Define a random variable, X A light bulb is randomly selected, what is the probability that (b) it will last will last more than 207 hrs. ? (c) it will last less than 214 hrs. (d) it will last in between 199 to 207 hrs. Q.21. The length of life of an instrument produced by a machine has a normal distribution with a mean of 22 months and standard deviation of 4 months. Find the probability that an instrument produced by this machine will last (a) less than 10 months. (b) more than 28 months (c) between 10 and 28 months. Distribution of sample mean and Central Limit Theorem (CLT) Q.22 It is assumed that weight of teenage student is normally distributed with mean=140 lbs. and standard deviation =15 lbs. A simple random sample of 40 teenage students is taken and sample mean is calculated. If several such samples of same size are taken (i) what could be the mean of all sample means. (ii) what could be the standard deviation of all sample means. (iii) will the distribution of sample means be normal ? (iv) What is CLT? Write down the distribution of sample mean in the form of ~ ( , ) 2 n X N   . Q.23 The time it takes students in a cooking school to learn to prepare seafood gumbo is a random variable with a normal distribution where the average is 3.2 hours and a standard deviation of 1.8 hours. A sample of 40 students was investigated. What is the distribution of sample mean (express in numbers)? Hypothesis Testing Q.24 The NCHS reported that the mean total cholesterol level in 2002 for all adults was 203 with standard deviation of 37. Total cholesterol levels in participants who attended the seventh examination of the Offspring in the Framingham Heart Study are summarized as follows: n=3,00, =200.3. Is there statistical evidence of a difference in mean cholesterol levels in the Framingham Offspring (means does the result form current examination differs from 2002 report)?? (Follow the steps below to reach the conclusion) (i) Define null and alternate hypothesis (Also write what is  , and x in words at the beginning) (ii) Identify the significance level ,  and check whether it is one sided or two sided test. (iii) Calculate test statistics, Z. (iv) Use standard normal table to find the p-value and state whether you reject or accept (fail to reject) the null hypothesis. (v) what is the critical value, do you reject or accept the H0. (vi) Write down the conclusion based on part (iv). Q.25 A sample of 145 boxes of Kellogg’s Raisin Bran contain in average 1.95 scoops of raisins. It is known from past experiments that the standard deviation for the number of scoops of raisins is 0.25. The manufacturer of Kellogg’s Raisin Bran claimed that in average their product contains more than 2 scoops of raisins, do you reject or accept the manufacturers claim (follow all five steps)? Q.26 It is assumed that the mean systolic blood pressure is μ = 120 mm Hg. In the Honolulu Heart Study, a sample of n = 100 people had an average systolic blood pressure of 130.1 mm Hg. The standard deviation from the population is 21.21 mm Hg. Is the group significantly different (with respect to systolic blood pressure!) from the regular population? Use 10% level of significance. Q.27 A CEO claims that at least 80 percent of the company’s 1,000,000 customers are very satisfied. Again, 100 customers are surveyed using simple random sampling. The result: 73 percent are very satisfied. Based on these results, should we accept or reject the CEO’s hypothesis? Assume a significance level of 0.05. Q.28 True/False questions (These questions are collected from previous HW, review and exam problems, see the previous solutions for answers) (a) Total sum of probability can exceed 1. (b) If you throw a die, getting 2 or any even number are independent events. (c) If you roll a die for 20 times, the probability of getting 5 in 15th roll is 20 15 . (d) A student is taking a 5 question True-False quiz but he has not been doing any work in the course and does not know the material so he randomly guesses at all the answers. Probability that he gets the first question right is 2 1 . (e) Typing in laptop and writing emails using the same laptop are independent events. (f) Normal distribution is right skewed. (g) Mean is more robust to outliers. So mean is used for data with extreme values. (h) It is possible to have no mode in the data. (i) Standard normal variable, Z has some unit. (j) Only two parameters are required to describe the entire normal distribution. (k) Mean of standard normal variable, Z is 1. (l) If p-value of more than level of significance (alpha), we reject the H0. (m) Very small p-value indicates rejection of H0. (n) H0 always contains equality sign. (o) CLT indicates that distribution of sample mean can be anything, not just normal. (p) Sample mean is always equal to population mean. (q) Variance of sample mean is less than population mean. (r) Variance of sample mean does not depend on sample size. (s) Mr. A has cancer but a medical doctor diagnosed him as “no cancer”. It is a type I error. (t) Level of significance is probability of making type II error. (u) Type II error can be controlled. (v) Type I error is more serious than type II error. (w) Type I and Type II errors are based on null hypothesis. Q.29 Type I and Type II Errors : Make statements about Type I (False Positive) and Type II errors (False Negative). (a) The Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) Test has both Type I and Type II error possibilities. This test screens the mother’s blood during pregnancy for AFP and determines risk. Abnormally high or low levels may indicate Down syndrome. (Hint: Take actual status as down syndrome or not) Ho: patient is healthy Ha: patient is unhealthy (b) The mechanic inspects the brake pads for the minimum allowable thickness. Ho: Vehicles breaks meet the standard for the minimum allowable thickness. Ha: Vehicles brakes do not meet the standard for the minimum allowable thickness. (c) Celiac disease is one of the diseases which can be misdiagnosed or have less diagnosis. Following table shows the actual celiac patients and their diagnosis status by medical doctors: Actual Status Yes No Diagnosed as celiac Yes 85 5 No 25 105 I. Calculate the probability of making type I and type II error rates. II. Calculate the power of the test. (Power of the test= 1- P(type II error) Answers: USEFUL FORMULAE: Descriptive Statistics Possible Outliers, any value beyond the range of Q 1.5( ) and Q 1.5( ) Range = Maximum value -Minimum value 100 where 1 ( ) (Preferred) 1 and , n fx x For data with repeats, 1 ( ) (Preferred ) OR 1 and n x x For data without repeats, 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Q Q Q Q x s CV n f n f x x OR s n fx nx s n x x s n x nx s                             Discrete Distribution         ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { ( )} ( ) ( ) 2 2 2 2 E X x P X x V X E X E X E X xP X x Binomial Distribution Probability mass function, P(X=x)= x n x n x C p q  for x=0,1,2,…,n. E(X)=np, Var(X)=npq Hypothesis Testing based on Normal Distribution      X std X mean Z Standard Normal Variable, Probability Bayes Rule, ( ) ( and ) ( ) ( ) ( | ) P B P A B P B P A B P A B    Central Limit Theorem For large n (n>30), ~ ( , ) 2 n X N   and ˆ ~ ( , ) n pq p N p For hypothesis testing of μ, σ known           n x Z   For hypothesis testing of p n pq p p Z   ˆ ANSWERS: Q.1 (a) 14.286 (b) 14 (c) none (d) 10.24 (e) 22.40 Q.2 (a) 15.125 (b) 15.5 (c) No (d) 10.98 (e) 21.9 (f) English Q.3 (a) 18.6 (b)19 (c) 16, 21, and 25 (d) 15, 22 (f) slightly left (g) 7 (h) no outliers (i) increase (j) same Q.4 (a) 0.41 (b) 20 (c)14, 17, 20, 21,25 (d) 16.5, 25 (f) slightly right (g) 8.5 (h) no (i) increase (j) same Q.5 (a)56.57 (b) 22.26 (c) 8.34 Q.6 (a) 21 (b) 38.57 (c) 29.57 Q.7 (a) 410 (b) 1200 Q.8 (a)3 (b) 0.65 Q.9 (a) 0.082 (b) 0.29 (c)0.34 (d) 0.66 (e)0.10 (f) 0.64 Q.10 (a) 0.038 (b)0.23 (c) 0.71 (d) 0.29 (e)0.096 (f) 0.62 Q.11 (i)0.248 (ii)0.752 (iii)0.505 Q.12 (i)0.0875 (ii)0.913 (iii)0.425 (iii)0.488 Q.13 (a)0.22 (b)0.41 (c)0.33 (d)0.27 (e) 0.67 Q.14 (a) 0.13 (b) 0.18 (c)0.12 Q.15 E(X)=3.1 , V(X)=1.69, $0.2 per game, $ 4 win. Q.16 E(X)=5.125, V(X)=1.86, $0.25 loss per game, $5 loss. Q.17 (a)0.201 (b) 0.819, 0.027 Q.18 (a)0.9938 (b)0.0968 (c)0.452 (d)0.984 (e) 0.0433 (f)0.2353 Q.19 (a) -0.25 (b)0.71 (c) -1.13 (d)0.41 Q.20 (b) 0.7422 (c) 0.3821 (d) 0.1109 Q.21 (a)0.0014 (b) 0.0668 (c) 0.9318 Q.22 (a) 140 (b)2.37 Q.24 Z=-1.26, Accept null. Q.25 Z=-2.41, accept null Q.26 Z=4.76, reject H0 Q.27 Z=-1.75, reject H0 Q.28 F, F, F, T , F, F, F, T, F, T, F, F, T, T, F, F, T, F, T, F, F, T, T Q.29 (c)0.113 , 0.022 , 0.977 (or 98%)

Statistical Methods (STAT 4303) Review for Final Comprehensive Exam Measures of Central Tendency, Dispersion Q.1. The data below represents the test scores obtained by students in college algebra class. 10,12,15,20,13,16,14 Calculate (a) Mean (b) Median (c) Mode (d) Variance, s2 (e) Coefficient of variation (CV) Q.2. The data below represents the test scores obtained by students in English class. 12,15,16,18,13,10,17,20 Calculate (a) Mean (b) Median (c) Mode (d) Variance, s2 (e) Coefficient of variation (CV) (f) Compare the results of Q.1 and Q.2, Which scores College Algebra or English do you think is more precise (less spread)? Q.3 Following data represents the score obtained by students in one of the exams 9, 13, 14, 15, 16, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 21, 22, 25, 25, 26 Create a frequency table to calculate the following descriptive statistics (a) mean (b) median (c) mode (d) first and third quartiles (e) Construct Box and Whisker plot. (f) Comment on the shape of the distribution. (g) Find inter quartile range (IQR). (h) Are there any outliers (based on IQR technique)? In the above problem, if the score 26 is replaced by 37 (i) What will happen to the mean? Will it increase, decrease or remains the same? (j) What will be the new median? (k) What can you say about the effect of outliers on mean and median? Q.4 Following data represents the score obtained by students in one of the exams 19, 14, 14, 15, 17, 16, 17, 20, 20, 21, 21, 22, 25, 25, 26, 27, 28 Create a frequency table to calculate the following descriptive statistics a) mean b) median c) mode d) first and third quartiles e) Construct Box and Whisker plot. f) Comment on the shape of the distribution. g) Find inter quartile range (IQR). h) Are there any outliers (based on IQR technique)? In the above problem, if the score 28 is replaced by 48 i) What will happen to the mean? Will it increase, decrease or remains the same? j) What will be the new median? k) What can you say about the effect of outliers on mean and median? Q.5 Consider the following data of height (in inch) and weight(in lbs). Height(x) Frequency 50 2 52 3 55 2 60 4 62 3  Find the mean height.  What is the variance of height? Also, find the standard deviation. (c) Find the coefficient of variation (CV). Q.6. The following table shows the number of miles run during one week for a sample of 20 runners: Miles Mid-value (x) Frequency (f) 5.5-10.5 1 10.5-15.5 2 15.5-20.5 3 20.5-25.5 5 25.5-30.5 4 (a) Find the average (mean) miles run. (Hint: Find mid-value of mile range first) (b) What is the variance of miles run? Also, find the standard deviation. (c) Find the coefficient of variation (CV). Q.7. (a) If the mean of 20 observations is 20.5, find the sum of all observations? (b) If the mean of 30 observations is 40, find the sum of all observations? Probability Q.8 Out of forty students, 14 are taking English Composition and 29 are taking Chemistry. a) How many students are in both classes? b) What is the probability that a randomly-chosen student from this group is taking only the Chemistry class? Q.9 A drawer contains 4 red balls, 5 green balls, and 5 blue balls. One ball is taken from the drawer and then replaced. Another ball is taken from the drawer. What is the probability that (Draw tree diagram to facilitate your calculation). (a) both balls are red (b) first ball is red (c) both balls are of same colors (d) both balls are of different colors (e) first ball is red and second ball is blue (f) first ball is red or blue Q.10 A drawer contains 3 red balls, 5 green balls, and 5 blue balls. One ball is taken from the drawer and not replaced. Another ball is then taken from the drawer. Draw tree diagram to facilitate your calculation. What is the probability that (a) both balls are red (b) first ball is red (c) both balls are of same colors (d) both balls are of different colors (e) first ball is red and second ball is blue (f) first ball is red or blue Q. 11 Missile A has 45% chance of hitting target. Missile B has 55% chance of hitting a target. What is the probability that (i) both miss the target. (ii) at least one will hit the target. (iii) exactly one will hit the target. Q. 12 A politician from D party speaks truth 65% of times; another politician from rival party speaks truth 75% of times. Both politicians were asked about their personal love affair with their own office secretary, what is the probability that (i) both lie the actual fact . (ii) at least one will speak truth. (iii) exactly one speaks the truth. (iv) both speak the truth. Q.13 The question, “Do you drink alcohol?” was asked to 220 people. Results are shown in the table. . Yes No Total Male 48 82 Female 24 66 Total (a) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a male also drinks? (b) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual being a female? (c) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual drinks? (d) A person is selected at random and if the person is female, what is the probability that she drinks? (e) What is the probability that a randomly selected alcoholic person is a male? Q.14 A professor, Dr. Drakula, taught courses that included statements from across the five colleges abbreviated as AH, AS, BA, ED and EN. He taught at Texas A&M University – Kingsville (TAMUK) during the span of five academic years AY09 to AY13. The following table shows the total number of graduates during AY09 to AY13. One day, he was running late to his class. He was so focused on the class that he did not stop for a red light. As soon as he crossed through the intersection, a police officer Asked him to stop. ( a ) It is turned out that the police officer was TAMUK graduate during the past five years. What is the probability that the Police Officer was from ED College? ( b ) What is the probability that the Police Officer graduated in the academic year of 2011? ( c ) If the traffic officer graduated from TAMUK in the academic year of 2011(AY11). What is the conditional probability that he graduated from the ED college? ( d ) Are the events the academic year “AY 11” and the college of Education “ED” independent? Yes or no , why? Discrete Distribution Q.15 Find k and probability for X=2 and X=4. X 1 2 3 4 5 P(X=x) 0.1 3k 0.2 2k 0.2 (Hint: First find k, and then plug in) Also, calculate the expected value of X, E(X) and variance V(X). A game plan is derived based on above table, a player wins $5 if he can blindly choose 3 and loses $1 if he chooses other numbers.What is his expected win or loss per game? If he plays this game for 20 times, what is total win or lose? Q.16 Find k. X 3 4 5 6 7 P(X=x) k 2k 2k k 2k (Hint: First find k, and then plug in) Also, calculate the expected value of X, E(X) and variance V(X). A game plan is derived based on above table, a player wins $5 if he can blindly choose 3 and loses $1 if he chooses other numbers. What is his expected win or loss per game? If he plays this game for 20 times, what is total win or lose? Binomial Distribution: Q.17 (a) Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover? (b) A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the probability of (i) more than 2 hits? (ii) at least 3 misses? (c) which of the following are binomial experiments? Explain the reason. i. Telephone surveying a group of 200 people to ask if they voted for George Bush. ii. Counting the average number of dogs seen at a veterinarian’s office daily. iii. You take a survey of 50 traffic lights in a certain city, at 3 p.m., recording whether the light was red, green, or yellow at that time. iv. You are at a fair, playing “pop the balloon” with 6 darts. There are 20 balloons. 10 of the balloons have a ticket inside that say “win,” and 10 have a ticket that says “lose.” Normal Distribution Q.18 Use standard normal distribution table to find the following probabilities: (a) P(Z<2.5) (b) P(Z< -1.3) (c) P(Z>0.12) (d) P(Z> -2.15) (e) P(0.11 ?)=0.87 (d) P(Z> ?)=0.34 Q.20. The length of life of certain type of light bulb is normally distributed with mean=220hrs and standard deviation=20hrs. (a) Define a random variable, X A light bulb is randomly selected, what is the probability that (b) it will last will last more than 207 hrs. ? (c) it will last less than 214 hrs. (d) it will last in between 199 to 207 hrs. Q.21. The length of life of an instrument produced by a machine has a normal distribution with a mean of 22 months and standard deviation of 4 months. Find the probability that an instrument produced by this machine will last (a) less than 10 months. (b) more than 28 months (c) between 10 and 28 months. Distribution of sample mean and Central Limit Theorem (CLT) Q.22 It is assumed that weight of teenage student is normally distributed with mean=140 lbs. and standard deviation =15 lbs. A simple random sample of 40 teenage students is taken and sample mean is calculated. If several such samples of same size are taken (i) what could be the mean of all sample means. (ii) what could be the standard deviation of all sample means. (iii) will the distribution of sample means be normal ? (iv) What is CLT? Write down the distribution of sample mean in the form of ~ ( , ) 2 n X N   . Q.23 The time it takes students in a cooking school to learn to prepare seafood gumbo is a random variable with a normal distribution where the average is 3.2 hours and a standard deviation of 1.8 hours. A sample of 40 students was investigated. What is the distribution of sample mean (express in numbers)? Hypothesis Testing Q.24 The NCHS reported that the mean total cholesterol level in 2002 for all adults was 203 with standard deviation of 37. Total cholesterol levels in participants who attended the seventh examination of the Offspring in the Framingham Heart Study are summarized as follows: n=3,00, =200.3. Is there statistical evidence of a difference in mean cholesterol levels in the Framingham Offspring (means does the result form current examination differs from 2002 report)?? (Follow the steps below to reach the conclusion) (i) Define null and alternate hypothesis (Also write what is  , and x in words at the beginning) (ii) Identify the significance level ,  and check whether it is one sided or two sided test. (iii) Calculate test statistics, Z. (iv) Use standard normal table to find the p-value and state whether you reject or accept (fail to reject) the null hypothesis. (v) what is the critical value, do you reject or accept the H0. (vi) Write down the conclusion based on part (iv). Q.25 A sample of 145 boxes of Kellogg’s Raisin Bran contain in average 1.95 scoops of raisins. It is known from past experiments that the standard deviation for the number of scoops of raisins is 0.25. The manufacturer of Kellogg’s Raisin Bran claimed that in average their product contains more than 2 scoops of raisins, do you reject or accept the manufacturers claim (follow all five steps)? Q.26 It is assumed that the mean systolic blood pressure is μ = 120 mm Hg. In the Honolulu Heart Study, a sample of n = 100 people had an average systolic blood pressure of 130.1 mm Hg. The standard deviation from the population is 21.21 mm Hg. Is the group significantly different (with respect to systolic blood pressure!) from the regular population? Use 10% level of significance. Q.27 A CEO claims that at least 80 percent of the company’s 1,000,000 customers are very satisfied. Again, 100 customers are surveyed using simple random sampling. The result: 73 percent are very satisfied. Based on these results, should we accept or reject the CEO’s hypothesis? Assume a significance level of 0.05. Q.28 True/False questions (These questions are collected from previous HW, review and exam problems, see the previous solutions for answers) (a) Total sum of probability can exceed 1. (b) If you throw a die, getting 2 or any even number are independent events. (c) If you roll a die for 20 times, the probability of getting 5 in 15th roll is 20 15 . (d) A student is taking a 5 question True-False quiz but he has not been doing any work in the course and does not know the material so he randomly guesses at all the answers. Probability that he gets the first question right is 2 1 . (e) Typing in laptop and writing emails using the same laptop are independent events. (f) Normal distribution is right skewed. (g) Mean is more robust to outliers. So mean is used for data with extreme values. (h) It is possible to have no mode in the data. (i) Standard normal variable, Z has some unit. (j) Only two parameters are required to describe the entire normal distribution. (k) Mean of standard normal variable, Z is 1. (l) If p-value of more than level of significance (alpha), we reject the H0. (m) Very small p-value indicates rejection of H0. (n) H0 always contains equality sign. (o) CLT indicates that distribution of sample mean can be anything, not just normal. (p) Sample mean is always equal to population mean. (q) Variance of sample mean is less than population mean. (r) Variance of sample mean does not depend on sample size. (s) Mr. A has cancer but a medical doctor diagnosed him as “no cancer”. It is a type I error. (t) Level of significance is probability of making type II error. (u) Type II error can be controlled. (v) Type I error is more serious than type II error. (w) Type I and Type II errors are based on null hypothesis. Q.29 Type I and Type II Errors : Make statements about Type I (False Positive) and Type II errors (False Negative). (a) The Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) Test has both Type I and Type II error possibilities. This test screens the mother’s blood during pregnancy for AFP and determines risk. Abnormally high or low levels may indicate Down syndrome. (Hint: Take actual status as down syndrome or not) Ho: patient is healthy Ha: patient is unhealthy (b) The mechanic inspects the brake pads for the minimum allowable thickness. Ho: Vehicles breaks meet the standard for the minimum allowable thickness. Ha: Vehicles brakes do not meet the standard for the minimum allowable thickness. (c) Celiac disease is one of the diseases which can be misdiagnosed or have less diagnosis. Following table shows the actual celiac patients and their diagnosis status by medical doctors: Actual Status Yes No Diagnosed as celiac Yes 85 5 No 25 105 I. Calculate the probability of making type I and type II error rates. II. Calculate the power of the test. (Power of the test= 1- P(type II error) Answers: USEFUL FORMULAE: Descriptive Statistics Possible Outliers, any value beyond the range of Q 1.5( ) and Q 1.5( ) Range = Maximum value -Minimum value 100 where 1 ( ) (Preferred) 1 and , n fx x For data with repeats, 1 ( ) (Preferred ) OR 1 and n x x For data without repeats, 1 3 1 3 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Q Q Q Q x s CV n f n f x x OR s n fx nx s n x x s n x nx s                             Discrete Distribution         ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) { ( )} ( ) ( ) 2 2 2 2 E X x P X x V X E X E X E X xP X x Binomial Distribution Probability mass function, P(X=x)= x n x n x C p q  for x=0,1,2,…,n. E(X)=np, Var(X)=npq Hypothesis Testing based on Normal Distribution      X std X mean Z Standard Normal Variable, Probability Bayes Rule, ( ) ( and ) ( ) ( ) ( | ) P B P A B P B P A B P A B    Central Limit Theorem For large n (n>30), ~ ( , ) 2 n X N   and ˆ ~ ( , ) n pq p N p For hypothesis testing of μ, σ known           n x Z   For hypothesis testing of p n pq p p Z   ˆ ANSWERS: Q.1 (a) 14.286 (b) 14 (c) none (d) 10.24 (e) 22.40 Q.2 (a) 15.125 (b) 15.5 (c) No (d) 10.98 (e) 21.9 (f) English Q.3 (a) 18.6 (b)19 (c) 16, 21, and 25 (d) 15, 22 (f) slightly left (g) 7 (h) no outliers (i) increase (j) same Q.4 (a) 0.41 (b) 20 (c)14, 17, 20, 21,25 (d) 16.5, 25 (f) slightly right (g) 8.5 (h) no (i) increase (j) same Q.5 (a)56.57 (b) 22.26 (c) 8.34 Q.6 (a) 21 (b) 38.57 (c) 29.57 Q.7 (a) 410 (b) 1200 Q.8 (a)3 (b) 0.65 Q.9 (a) 0.082 (b) 0.29 (c)0.34 (d) 0.66 (e)0.10 (f) 0.64 Q.10 (a) 0.038 (b)0.23 (c) 0.71 (d) 0.29 (e)0.096 (f) 0.62 Q.11 (i)0.248 (ii)0.752 (iii)0.505 Q.12 (i)0.0875 (ii)0.913 (iii)0.425 (iii)0.488 Q.13 (a)0.22 (b)0.41 (c)0.33 (d)0.27 (e) 0.67 Q.14 (a) 0.13 (b) 0.18 (c)0.12 Q.15 E(X)=3.1 , V(X)=1.69, $0.2 per game, $ 4 win. Q.16 E(X)=5.125, V(X)=1.86, $0.25 loss per game, $5 loss. Q.17 (a)0.201 (b) 0.819, 0.027 Q.18 (a)0.9938 (b)0.0968 (c)0.452 (d)0.984 (e) 0.0433 (f)0.2353 Q.19 (a) -0.25 (b)0.71 (c) -1.13 (d)0.41 Q.20 (b) 0.7422 (c) 0.3821 (d) 0.1109 Q.21 (a)0.0014 (b) 0.0668 (c) 0.9318 Q.22 (a) 140 (b)2.37 Q.24 Z=-1.26, Accept null. Q.25 Z=-2.41, accept null Q.26 Z=4.76, reject H0 Q.27 Z=-1.75, reject H0 Q.28 F, F, F, T , F, F, F, T, F, T, F, F, T, T, F, F, T, F, T, F, F, T, T Q.29 (c)0.113 , 0.022 , 0.977 (or 98%)

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“How to Date a Black girl, Brown girl, Halfie or White girl” written by Junot Diaz

“How to Date a Black girl, Brown girl, Halfie or White girl” written by Junot Diaz

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Develop a 4 page-500 word précis on Chapter 7 “How to Monitor & Control a TPM Project” of the Wysocki 7th Ed. text.”

Develop a 4 page-500 word précis on Chapter 7 “How to Monitor & Control a TPM Project” of the Wysocki 7th Ed. text.”

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Joshua is a millionaire, and he manages several successful companies. He usually socializes with people of similar status. Given this information, Joshua and the people he socializes with are examples of a _____.

Joshua is a millionaire, and he manages several successful companies. He usually socializes with people of similar status. Given this information, Joshua and the people he socializes with are examples of a _____.

social class
TEXT The sole text is Daniel Bonevac’s Today’s Moral Issues. This is an extremely accessible work that organizes the subject matter of ethics into well-structured units involving both general principles and focused ethical dilemmas. The instructor will guide the students through the pertinent readings and discussion topics. Exam #3: WAR ECONOMIC EQUALITY 1. Aquinas 5. Mill 2. Grotius 6. Hospers 3. Clausewitz 7. Anderson 4. Gandhi CONCERNING THE SHORT PAPER Choose one of our dilemma topics from our book as the focus of your short paper. If you have another topic in mind, please consult with me for permission. —length: 4 to 5 pages — format: typed —number of points: 10 — submission via Bb, under “Assignments” — Format: Microsoft Word — Line Spacing: Double-Spaced —Print: Black The following is merely a suggestion for the organization of the paper, but it might be useful as an indication of how it could look: a) Initial statement of your position concerning the moral dilemma; how to resolve it, how you plan to argue for/against it. b) Amplification of your position; your main points or position. c) Backup: some cited references and supporting evidence for your position. d) Your criticisms of alternative or contrary points of view. e) Your conclusion/summing up. Plagiarism is a serious breach of academic integrity. If you submit plagiarized materials you will receive a zero on the assignment. If you need an extension of the due date for the paper, please consult with me.

TEXT The sole text is Daniel Bonevac’s Today’s Moral Issues. This is an extremely accessible work that organizes the subject matter of ethics into well-structured units involving both general principles and focused ethical dilemmas. The instructor will guide the students through the pertinent readings and discussion topics. Exam #3: WAR ECONOMIC EQUALITY 1. Aquinas 5. Mill 2. Grotius 6. Hospers 3. Clausewitz 7. Anderson 4. Gandhi CONCERNING THE SHORT PAPER Choose one of our dilemma topics from our book as the focus of your short paper. If you have another topic in mind, please consult with me for permission. —length: 4 to 5 pages — format: typed —number of points: 10 — submission via Bb, under “Assignments” — Format: Microsoft Word — Line Spacing: Double-Spaced —Print: Black The following is merely a suggestion for the organization of the paper, but it might be useful as an indication of how it could look: a) Initial statement of your position concerning the moral dilemma; how to resolve it, how you plan to argue for/against it. b) Amplification of your position; your main points or position. c) Backup: some cited references and supporting evidence for your position. d) Your criticisms of alternative or contrary points of view. e) Your conclusion/summing up. Plagiarism is a serious breach of academic integrity. If you submit plagiarized materials you will receive a zero on the assignment. If you need an extension of the due date for the paper, please consult with me.

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1 | P a g e Lecture #2: Abortion (Warren) While studying this topic, we will ask whether it is morally permissible to intentionally terminate a pregnancy and, if so, whether certain restrictions should be placed upon such practices. Even though we will most often be speaking of terminating a fetus, biologists make further classifications: the zygote is the single cell resulting from the fusion of the egg and the sperm; the morula is the cluster of cells that travels through the fallopian tubes; the blastocyte exists once an outer shell of cells has formed around an inner group of cells; the embryo exists once the cells begin to take on specific functions (around the 15th day); the fetus comes into existence in the 8th week when the embryo gains a basic structural resemblance to the adult. Given these distinctions, there are certain kinds of non-fetal abortion—such as usage of RU-486 (the morning-after “abortion pill”)—though most of the writers we will study refer to fetal abortions. So now let us consider the “Classical Argument against Abortion”, which has been very influential: P1) It is wrong to kill innocent persons. P2) A fetus is an innocent person. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. (Note that this argument has received various formulations, including those from Warren and Thomson which differ from the above. For this course, we will refer to the above formulation as the “Classical Argument”.) Before evaluating this argument, we should talk about terminology: A person is a member of the moral community; i.e., someone who has rights and/or duties. ‘Persons’ is the plural of ‘person’. ‘Person’ can be contrasted with ‘human being’; a human being is anyone who is genetically human (i.e., a member of Homo sapiens). ‘People’ (or ‘human beings’) is the plural of ‘human being’. Why does this matter? First, not all persons are human beings. For example, consider an alien from another planet who mentally resembled us. If he were to visit Earth, it would be morally reprehensible to kick him or to set him on fire because of the pain and suffering that these acts would cause. And, similarly, the alien would be morally condemnable if he were to propagate such acts on us; he has a moral duty not to act in those ways (again, assuming a certain mental resemblance to us). So, even though this alien is not a human being, he is nevertheless a person with the associative rights and/or duties. 2 | P a g e And, more controversially, maybe not all human beings are persons. For example, anencephalic infants—i.e., ones born without cerebral cortexes and therefore with severely limited cognitive abilities—certainly do not have duties since they are not capable of rational thought and autonomous action. Some philosophers have even argued that they do not have rights. Now let us return to the Classical Argument. It is valid insofar as, if the premises are true, then the conclusion has to be true. But maybe it commits equivocation, which is to say that it uses the same word in multiple senses; equivocation is an informal fallacy (i.e., attaches to arguments that are formally valid but otherwise fallacious). Consider the following: P1) I put my money in the bank. P2) The bank borders the river. C) I put my money somewhere that borders the river. This argument equivocates since ‘bank’ is being used in two different senses: in P1 it is used to represent a financial institution and, in P2, it is used to represent a geological feature. Returning to the classical argument, it could be argued that ‘person’ is being used in two different senses: in P1 it is used in its appropriate moral sense and, in P2, it is inappropriately used instead of ‘human being’. The critic might suggest that a more accurate way to represent the argument would be as follows: P1) It is wrong to kill innocent persons. P2) A fetus is a human being. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. This argument is obviously invalid. So one way to criticize the Classical Argument is to say that it conflates two different concepts—viz., ‘person’ and ‘human being’—and therefore commits equivocation. However, the more straightforward way to attack the Classical Argument is just to deny its second premise and thus contend that the argument is unsound. This is the approach that Mary Anne Warren takes in “On the Moral and Legal Status of Abortion”. Why does Warren think that the second premise is false? Remember that we defined a person as “a member of the moral community.” And we said that an alien, for example, could be afforded moral status even though it is not a human being. Why do we think that this alien should not be tortured or set on fire? Warren thinks that, intuitively, we think that membership in the moral community is based upon possession of the following traits: 3 | P a g e 1. Consciousness of objects and events external and/or internal to the being and especially the capacity to feel pain; 2. Reasoning or rationality (i.e., the developed capacity to solve new and relatively complex problems); 3. Self-motivated activity (i.e., activity which is relatively independent of either genetic or direct external control); 4. Capacity to communicate (not necessarily verbal or linguistic); and 5. Possession of self-concepts and self-awareness. Warren then admits that, though all of the items on this list look promising, we need not require that a person have all of the items on this list. (4) is perhaps the most expendable: imagine someone who is fully paralyzed as well as deaf, these incapacities, which preclude communication, are not sufficient to justify torture. Similarly, we might be able to imagine certain psychological afflictions that negate (5) without compromising personhood. Warren suspects that (1) and (2) are might be sufficient to confer personhood, and thinks that (1)-(3) “quite probably” are sufficient. Note that, if she is right, we would not be able to torture chimps, let us say, but we could set plants on fire (and most likely ants as well). However, given Warren’s aims, she does not need to specify which of these traits are necessary or sufficient for personhood; all that she wants to observe is that the fetus has none of them! Therefore, regardless of which traits we want to require, Warren thinks that the fetus is not a person. Therefore she thinks that the Classical Argument is unsound and should be rejected. Even if we accept Warren’s refutation of the second premise, we might be inclined to say that, while the fetus is not (now) a person, it is a potential person: the fetus will hopefully mature into a being that possesses all five of the traits on Warren’s list. We might then propose the following adjustment to the Classical Argument: P1) It is wrong to kill all innocent persons. P2) A fetus is a potential person. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. However, this argument is invalid. Warren grants that potentiality might serve as a prima facie reason (i.e., a reason that has some moral weight but which might be outweighed by other considerations) not to abort a fetus, but potentiality alone is insufficient to grant the fetus a moral right against being terminated. By analogy, consider the following argument: 4 | P a g e P1) The President has the right to declare war. P2) Mary is a potential President. C) Mary has the right to declare war. This argument is invalid since the premises are both true and the conclusion is false. By parity, the following argument is also invalid: P1) A person has a right to life. P2) A fetus is a potential person. C) A fetus has a right to life. Thus Warren thinks that considerations of potentiality are insufficient to undermine her argument that fetuses—which are potential persons but, she thinks, not persons—do not have a right to life.

1 | P a g e Lecture #2: Abortion (Warren) While studying this topic, we will ask whether it is morally permissible to intentionally terminate a pregnancy and, if so, whether certain restrictions should be placed upon such practices. Even though we will most often be speaking of terminating a fetus, biologists make further classifications: the zygote is the single cell resulting from the fusion of the egg and the sperm; the morula is the cluster of cells that travels through the fallopian tubes; the blastocyte exists once an outer shell of cells has formed around an inner group of cells; the embryo exists once the cells begin to take on specific functions (around the 15th day); the fetus comes into existence in the 8th week when the embryo gains a basic structural resemblance to the adult. Given these distinctions, there are certain kinds of non-fetal abortion—such as usage of RU-486 (the morning-after “abortion pill”)—though most of the writers we will study refer to fetal abortions. So now let us consider the “Classical Argument against Abortion”, which has been very influential: P1) It is wrong to kill innocent persons. P2) A fetus is an innocent person. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. (Note that this argument has received various formulations, including those from Warren and Thomson which differ from the above. For this course, we will refer to the above formulation as the “Classical Argument”.) Before evaluating this argument, we should talk about terminology: A person is a member of the moral community; i.e., someone who has rights and/or duties. ‘Persons’ is the plural of ‘person’. ‘Person’ can be contrasted with ‘human being’; a human being is anyone who is genetically human (i.e., a member of Homo sapiens). ‘People’ (or ‘human beings’) is the plural of ‘human being’. Why does this matter? First, not all persons are human beings. For example, consider an alien from another planet who mentally resembled us. If he were to visit Earth, it would be morally reprehensible to kick him or to set him on fire because of the pain and suffering that these acts would cause. And, similarly, the alien would be morally condemnable if he were to propagate such acts on us; he has a moral duty not to act in those ways (again, assuming a certain mental resemblance to us). So, even though this alien is not a human being, he is nevertheless a person with the associative rights and/or duties. 2 | P a g e And, more controversially, maybe not all human beings are persons. For example, anencephalic infants—i.e., ones born without cerebral cortexes and therefore with severely limited cognitive abilities—certainly do not have duties since they are not capable of rational thought and autonomous action. Some philosophers have even argued that they do not have rights. Now let us return to the Classical Argument. It is valid insofar as, if the premises are true, then the conclusion has to be true. But maybe it commits equivocation, which is to say that it uses the same word in multiple senses; equivocation is an informal fallacy (i.e., attaches to arguments that are formally valid but otherwise fallacious). Consider the following: P1) I put my money in the bank. P2) The bank borders the river. C) I put my money somewhere that borders the river. This argument equivocates since ‘bank’ is being used in two different senses: in P1 it is used to represent a financial institution and, in P2, it is used to represent a geological feature. Returning to the classical argument, it could be argued that ‘person’ is being used in two different senses: in P1 it is used in its appropriate moral sense and, in P2, it is inappropriately used instead of ‘human being’. The critic might suggest that a more accurate way to represent the argument would be as follows: P1) It is wrong to kill innocent persons. P2) A fetus is a human being. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. This argument is obviously invalid. So one way to criticize the Classical Argument is to say that it conflates two different concepts—viz., ‘person’ and ‘human being’—and therefore commits equivocation. However, the more straightforward way to attack the Classical Argument is just to deny its second premise and thus contend that the argument is unsound. This is the approach that Mary Anne Warren takes in “On the Moral and Legal Status of Abortion”. Why does Warren think that the second premise is false? Remember that we defined a person as “a member of the moral community.” And we said that an alien, for example, could be afforded moral status even though it is not a human being. Why do we think that this alien should not be tortured or set on fire? Warren thinks that, intuitively, we think that membership in the moral community is based upon possession of the following traits: 3 | P a g e 1. Consciousness of objects and events external and/or internal to the being and especially the capacity to feel pain; 2. Reasoning or rationality (i.e., the developed capacity to solve new and relatively complex problems); 3. Self-motivated activity (i.e., activity which is relatively independent of either genetic or direct external control); 4. Capacity to communicate (not necessarily verbal or linguistic); and 5. Possession of self-concepts and self-awareness. Warren then admits that, though all of the items on this list look promising, we need not require that a person have all of the items on this list. (4) is perhaps the most expendable: imagine someone who is fully paralyzed as well as deaf, these incapacities, which preclude communication, are not sufficient to justify torture. Similarly, we might be able to imagine certain psychological afflictions that negate (5) without compromising personhood. Warren suspects that (1) and (2) are might be sufficient to confer personhood, and thinks that (1)-(3) “quite probably” are sufficient. Note that, if she is right, we would not be able to torture chimps, let us say, but we could set plants on fire (and most likely ants as well). However, given Warren’s aims, she does not need to specify which of these traits are necessary or sufficient for personhood; all that she wants to observe is that the fetus has none of them! Therefore, regardless of which traits we want to require, Warren thinks that the fetus is not a person. Therefore she thinks that the Classical Argument is unsound and should be rejected. Even if we accept Warren’s refutation of the second premise, we might be inclined to say that, while the fetus is not (now) a person, it is a potential person: the fetus will hopefully mature into a being that possesses all five of the traits on Warren’s list. We might then propose the following adjustment to the Classical Argument: P1) It is wrong to kill all innocent persons. P2) A fetus is a potential person. C) It is wrong to kill a fetus. However, this argument is invalid. Warren grants that potentiality might serve as a prima facie reason (i.e., a reason that has some moral weight but which might be outweighed by other considerations) not to abort a fetus, but potentiality alone is insufficient to grant the fetus a moral right against being terminated. By analogy, consider the following argument: 4 | P a g e P1) The President has the right to declare war. P2) Mary is a potential President. C) Mary has the right to declare war. This argument is invalid since the premises are both true and the conclusion is false. By parity, the following argument is also invalid: P1) A person has a right to life. P2) A fetus is a potential person. C) A fetus has a right to life. Thus Warren thinks that considerations of potentiality are insufficient to undermine her argument that fetuses—which are potential persons but, she thinks, not persons—do not have a right to life.